On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against the single European currency. Negative report from the ZEW Institute on business optimism in Germany indicates a continued negative trend in the leading economy in the Eurozone. Once the leaders there are obvious problems, then we can expect from the periphery of the negative. Against this negative background, quotes the euro / dollar at the moment drop to 1.3790. However, the "bears" happy for long - after the publication of a positive report on CPI in the United States, investors decided to take profits on short positions. As a result, the euro / dollar closed the trading day at around 1.3809.
"Bulls" and "Bears" for the pair GBP / USD failed again to determine the winner. Published a report on the UK consumer price index for March indicates contraction inflationary pressures that contributed to the decline of the British currency to around 1.6661. Nevertheless, investors continue to look with optimism to "cable" and redeem it on any heavily discounted. However, declines in CPI is negative for the economy of the United Kingdom and soon we will see the first alarm calls. As a result, the pair GBP / USD opened the day at 1.6728, reaching a minimum of 1.6661, ending trading day at around 1.6721.
U.S. dollar slightly strengthened its position in the near future, this trend can be continued.
15.04.2014 EUR / USD rate forecast
Fig. 1. Daily chart
EURUSD rate dynamics correction intensified, but the likelihood of resumption of the uptrend remains high. In this reversal may take place from the 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA or support 1.3640-1.3670. In all cases, the purpose of growth is testing the 1.4000 mark.
On the first day of the new trading week, the pair EUR / USD remains under pressure amid increasing geopolitical risks, as well as positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Ukraine's political crisis only reinforces the escalation of the conflict with Russia, which leads to exit risky assets from institutional investors.
Against this background, we see activity "bears" in the euro / dollar pair. U.S. pleased with the positive market participants report on retail sales. In March outgrowth rate to the level of 1.1%, which indicates a good enough confidence of American consumers. Release for February was revised to improve that output signals more optimistic U.S. GDP than previously expected. As a result, the euro / dollar opened the day at 1.3843, reaching a minimum of 1.3807, ending trading day at around 1.3817.
On the last trading day of last week, the U.S. dollar managed to regain some lost ground against its main competitors. The EUR / USD for the day was to consolidate a strong resistance level near 1.3892. Even positive U.S. data failed to cheer up "bears" to open short positions. Producer price index in March accelerated its growth to 1.4% on an annualized basis, which is the first sign of increasing inflationary pressures. Report on consumer confidence from the Institute of Michigan also was better than the median forecasts in April, it amounted to 82.6.Nevertheless, investors' reactions to strong data releases are not followed and trading day on euro / dollar ended lower by a symbolic claim 1, at around 1.3883.