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The euro exchange rate against the dollar technical outlook EURUSD today 12/09/2019: Press conference Draghi - the key event


On Wednesday, 11 September, at the end of the day the euro closed in the red. On the European and American sessions, the single currency fell by 71 points to 1.0985. The occasion began to prepare traders for the upcoming ECB meeting, lowering forecasts for growth of the German economy with two German research institutions (Institute of World Economics in Kiel, IfW, and the Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, DIW) for downward movement. Later, the pressure on the euro was a message to Reuters, which stated that at today's meeting of the ECB will lower its forecasts for economic growth in 2019 and 2020 respectively.



Planned statistics (GMT + 3):

At 12:00, the euro zone is to publish data on industrial production for July.

At 14:45 will be known the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank, and at 15:30 will be a press conference of the ECB. 

At 15:30 Canada will release the price index for new homes in the US - data on initial applications for unemployment insurance and consumer price inflation in August.

At 21:00 the US will publish the Federal budget.



Current Situation EURUSD:

Yesterday's expectations on the rate decrease to 1,105-20 (support) is fully justified. The news was on the side of the sellers, therefore, against a background of reducing cross with the euro, they are on the road no one interfered. The fall has stopped at 67 grams. - 1.0985.

Today EURUSD forecast does not do because of a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. The market expects a decline in deposit rates. The question remains, will the regulator to introduce additional stimulus measures. In any case, the volatility jump during the announcement of the ECB, but the movement will be restrained until Draghi speech. He should make it clear to market participants, as the Central Bank assesses the current situation and what measures will be taken.

According to the current pricing model by reducing the probability of 1.1056 EURUSD up to 1.0990 is 80%. And how close the market - growth or decline - will become clear after the speech Draghi.


EURUSD Forecast for today Alpari




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