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Main » 2017 » December » 22 » The euro dollar forecast EUR / USD today 22.12.2017: Euro - the main scenario to weaken
The euro dollar forecast EUR / USD today 22.12.2017: Euro - the main scenario to weaken

Results of the last trading day:

In Thursday, December 21, the euro / dollar closed slightly up. The range of daily candle was 40 points. At auction in Europe shoppers descended to the level of 1.1890 at the American session, they fell back to the level of 1.1850. Price revolved around the level of 1.1870.

The Canadian dollar rose to after good data on retail sales and inflation in Canada. He pulled his height euros for a top. The Swiss franc fell against the dollar on the contrary and pulled euros for a down. There is an opinion that it contributed to the weakening of the Swiss National Bank through currency intervention, which he spends in the EUR / CHF pair. The euro / franc rose to 1.1750 (highest since January 2015).



American statistics:

The preliminary value of GDP index in the USA for the III quarter 2017 amounted to 3.2% (forecast was 3.3%, previous 3.1%).

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week to 16.12 amounted to 245 thousand. (Forecast was 231 thousand., The previous value of 225 thousand.).


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:00 am, Germany is to publish an index of consumer confidence from the GfK January.

At 10:45 France will present data on changes in the volume of consumer spending in November and GDP for the III quarter.

At 11:00 Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators from the KOF December.

At 12:30 UK will report to change the balance of payments, in terms of GDP, and the volume of investment for the III quarter.

At 16:30 Canada will report on changes in GDP in October. The United States will present data on changes in the volume of orders for durable goods in November, and the level of expenditures and income for November.

At 18:00 the US will announce the change in our sales of new buildings in November and will release consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan in December.

At 21:00 will be released Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production in the United States.


Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView


In Asia, the euro fell from 1.1874 to 1.1817. The euro fell to the preliminary data of the parliamentary elections in Catalonia. How to write media, the election defeat of Catalan separatists. The Parliament will be the majority of parties that advocate the separation of the country from Spain.

Price, breaking the bottom line of the channel (marked breakdown point) fell to 161.8% of the channel range. Fibo level almost coincides with the 67th degree. They are the price quickly rebounded to 1.1844, and at the last quote the euro is worth 1.1853. The market has calmed down, but I think with the opening of London's Euro sales will resume.  

It is difficult to make trading decisions when the market is influenced by political factors. Two forecast chart. I had to do both, because often the market is set after appearing candles with long shadows.

Yesterday, I wrote in the review that the clock cycles indicate a depreciation of the euro up to 28/12/17. I double-checked them, nothing has changed. Upward correction is due to start at 8:00 MSK 25/12/17. On 26/12/17 from 6:00 MSK drop should continue. In this regard, my main scenario for the weakening of the euro. 



Vladislav Antonov Alpari




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