During the trading session on Tuesday, Brent crude oil continues to be quoted near $ 45 per barrel. Traders' sentiment has improved significantly on the background of reports from the Reuters news agency that the largest oil-producing countries of the OPEC + alliance last month fulfilled their agreements to cut aggregate production by 97%. Recall that earlier these measures were intended to neutralize the drop in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.
It should be noted that the problem of low demand is still relevant for the global economy. Last week, three organizations at once, OPEC, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecast for oil demand until the end of 2020. So, in a monthly report released on Thursday, the IEA announced that it expects a decline in global oil consumption in 2020 by 8.1 million barrels per day to 91.9 million barrels. The OPEC report, released the day before, predicted a more significant decline in demand - by 9.1 million barrels per day to 90.6 million barrels. As for the EIA forecast, according to the agency's analysts, oil demand in 2020 will decrease by 8 million barrels to 93.1 million barrels.
On Monday, the quotes were also supported by increased geopolitical risks after the US government announced the seizure of a cargo of Iranian gasoline transported by tankers to Venezuela. In addition, China's readiness to increase purchases of American hydrocarbons was on the side of buyers. China's state-owned oil companies have pre-booked tankers to deliver 20 million barrels of US oil in August and September.
Investors' attention will now be focused on the upcoming meetings of the technical committee and the OPEC + ministerial committee, which will be held this week. Market participants fear that the real rate of implementation of the agreement to cut production last month may be below 80%. In this scenario, Brent quotes risk being under pressure.
Brent SellLimit 45.60 TP 43.00 SL 46.10
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