The USD / JPY pair declined during the trading session on Wednesday, ending at 105.15. Despite the corrective growth in the Asian session on Thursday, market participants continue to bet on the positional weakening of the US currency against the Japanese yen with a downside potential below 105.00.
Local support for the pair could have been provided by the statistics on manufacturing inflation in the US. The producer price index in September rose by 0.4% m / m and 0.4% y / y, which turned out to be twice better than analysts' forecasts. Excluding food and energy prices, manufacturing inflation accelerated from + 0.6% YoY to + 1.2% YoY, well ahead of market forecasts of + 0.9% YoY. Today at 15:30 Moscow time, traders will be presented with data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. With the second wave of COVID-19 in the United States continuing to hamper the recovery of the American economy, employment problems persist. Against this background, today's report is likely to disappoint traders, which will lead to additional pressure on the dollar.
The growth of market pessimism was also facilitated by the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who doubted that additional measures of budgetary stimulus would be agreed upon before the November elections. In addition, investors are responding to alarming news regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. Eli Lilly and Company said Tuesday night it is suspending trials of its own vaccine due to a new side effect. Previously, the freeze of the vaccine trial was also reported by Johnson & Johnson, and the trials by the British company AstraZeneca Plc. stopped for more than one month.
The main market risk is still the prospect of a second lockdown in many regions of the world, which is quite realistic given the rate of spread of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. If restrictive measures become the only way to stop the spread of infection, investors will again have to shift capital into defensive assets such as the yen, franc and gold. Against this background, the decline in the USD / JPY pair may continue.
USD / JPY SellLimit 105.50 TP 104.10 SL 105.90
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