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Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EURUSD 18.02.2019


The trading week for the EUR / USD pair has stood out very hard. Several times the single European currency was close to trading update at least 2018, but, thanks to a series of weak economic data from the United States, as well as positive news from Beijing and Washington buyers managed to keep the price above the level of 1.12.

The main problems of the European currency is still associated with the weakening of the economy of the region. Recent statistics indicate continuing negative trend of the main indicators that entails aggravation of internal political problems. Additional pressure on the currency pair have risks associated with Brexit, because in case of an uncontrolled release of the UK EU serious economic may be applied to the region's key countries - France and Germany. On the research data cited last week, which showed that in the case of "hard» Brexit threatened in Germany it may be up to 100 thousand. Jobs, in France halved. It does not add optimism to investors and actively discussed topic is now possible introduction of increased duty on European cars from the United States.


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For a dollar a major blow last week began an internal statistics, which are surprisingly well below the forecast values ​​and the positive outcome of the next round of talks between Beijing and Washington, which reduces interest in the dollar as defensive assets on trading risks.

In the week ahead, investors will carefully study the new statistics from Europe, trying to assess the real situation in the EU. For the main themes of the week the dollar will continue negotiations the United States and China, the contents of data statistics and Fed policy.

On Monday, the US output on the occasion of President's Day celebration. All the country's financial markets will be closed, which negatively impact on the volatility and liquidity of the market.

On Tuesday, traders from the US to come back on the market, but the focus of investors will be mainly news from Europe, where the institute ZEW will publish its index of Germany. Also on this day scheduled to address a member of the ECB Prata.

The main event of the environment should be the publication of FOMC meeting minutes, which was held in January.

On Thursday released a large block of economic statistics from the US and Europe. In the EU, will be presented preliminary data on PMI manufacturing and services sectors. They will also be published the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB.

In the United States the day unveil preliminary data on PMI manufacturing sector and the services sector, orders for durable goods, the secondary market housing data and other less important economic data.

On Friday, the focus of investors will be data on Germany's GDP for the fourth quarter, the business climate index IFO in Germany, revised data on inflation in the EU, as well as the performance of Mario Draghi at the event in Bologna.

In the US, a forum dedicated to the monetary policy of the Fed will be held on this day, on which will perform some of the Federal Reserve Bank.

On the chart EURUSD, despite the local correction situation for the pair EUR / USD remains very difficult. In the younger timeslots clearly dominates bearish trend, indicating the likely continued downward movement. On the daily chart also note the presence of signals in favor of the downward movement and the high probability update local minimum at 1.1200. Therefore, corrective gains seen as a good opportunity to build short positions on the instrument.  


Resistance Levels EURUSD: 1.1315, 1.1350, 1.1400.

EURUSD support levels: 1.1290, 1.1260, 1.1200.

The main scenario for EURUSD - the formation of topping formation in the range of 1.1315-1.1330.

Alternative scenario - securing course EURUSD above 1.1315 and continuation of corrective upside.

On EURUSD chart bearish signals predominate. The fundamental backdrop remains negative as well. Therefore, preference is given to short positions, which can be opened at the level of 1.1315.



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Based on materials FortFS


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