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Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 08.01.2020: Euro again under pressure


The EUR / USD is trading near lows reached yesterday. Locally exerts pressure on the price situation in the stock markets. Global indices decline on news of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. On the risk aversion of traders to the dollar looks more attractive asset for investment than the European currency.


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In the market there are other pressures on the euro. Firstly, investors react negatively to reports that the German government does not want to increase fiscal spending to stimulate the economy. Secondly, previously published data suggest continued low inflationary pressures in the euro area, which increases the risk of further easing of monetary policy by the ECB.



This morning, in Germany we published data on factory orders for November. Orders fell by 1.3% at the expected growth rate of 0.2%.

In the United States, in addition to the geopolitical news, the focus today will be data on the change in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls from ADP. These data form the expectations of investors before the publication of the main report from the US Department of Labor, which will be presented on Friday.

From the level of 1.1200 the pair resumed its downward movement. Local support has a price level of 1.1130. But the bears continue to increase the pressure, so today as a priority considering the scenario with the breakdown of the mark and the further development of the downward movement towards the 1.1070 level.

Resistance levels: 1.1160, 1.1200, 1.1235.

Levels of support: 1.1130, 1.1070, 1.1045

The main scenario - the breakdown of support at 1.1130 and the decline towards 1.1070.

Alternative Scenario - consolidation above 1.1160 and rising to 1.1200.

Fundamental background - moderately negative. Intra-day considering sales from the level of 1.1160.



Analytics euro against the dollar each day  FORTFS



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