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Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 04.10.2019: traders wait NON-FARM PAYROLLS performance and Jerome Powell


Weak economic statistics from the United States support the upward motion vector pair EUR / USD. After the decline of the manufacturing sector PMI to its lowest level since June 2009, falling to three-year lows marked by US PMI non-manufacturing sector. This is a major concern of investors about the spread of negative trends in all areas of the US economy. Against this backdrop, investors are revising their expectations for further Fed action. When evaluated at 19%, now it is 53% the probability of two rate cuts before the end of the year last week, according to CME Group. On Wednesday the figure was 39%.


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Prospects for differential rates of reduction in the EU and the US is a strong supporting factor for the pair EUR / USD, despite the risks associated with Brexit and weak macro statistics from the EU.

Today, the US dollar and news from the US will continue to be the dominant influence on the dynamics of the movement of the entire financial market. After weak data on PMI, investors are looking forward to the publication of a report on the labor market. There is a high probability that the main indicators will be below market expectations.

No less profound impact on trade may have planned for today presentations Fed Braynarda, Bostic, George Clarida, Kvorlsa and Jerome Powell.


On the chart EURUSD note saved on the local priority of an upward trend. After a small correction to the area of ​​1.0945 is possible to expect development of a new bullish wave towards level of 1.1025 and 1.1085.


Resistance Levels EURUSD: 1.0990, 1.1025, 1.1085.

EURUSD support levels: 1.0945, 1.0915, 1.0890.

The main scenario - EURUSD correction to 1.0945 and the resumption of the upward movement.

Alternative Scenario - rostEURUSD to 1.1025 and 1.1085 to current levels.  


The fundamental backdrop remains positive. On EURUSD graph locally prevail bovine signals. Recommended consider buying EURUSD on the levels of 1.0945 and 1.0890.   


Fundamental forecasts the EURUSD  FORTFS



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