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Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 03.01.2020: Euro under pressure


EUR / USD is now trading within a narrow horizontal band, located in yesterday's lows. Investors expect the publication of important macroeconomic data from Europe and the United States. In this case, the trading volumes remain low because not all large investors returned to the market after the Christmas and New Year holidays.


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In Europe today, the focus will be data on the labor market in Germany. In our view, the market's reaction to this news is quite restrained. A greater impact on the dynamics of the currency pair EUR / USD will have news from the US, where it is expected to publish data on manufacturing sector PMI from ISM for December. Experts predict the growth rate from 48.1 to 49.0 points. These above forward-looking expectations can have a very strong support for the dollar.

In the graph there was a breakdown of the important support level - 1.1200. Accordingly, today the priority is the scenario with the development of a downward movement. Downward movement can be continued after the correction rollback to 1.1200, and with current levels.


Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1280.

Levels of support: 1.1160, 1.1030, 1.1070

The main scenario - growth to 1.1200, and the resumption of the downward movement.

Alternative Scenario - consolidation below 1.1160 and decline to 1.1130.

Fundamental background - neutral. The graph bearish signals predominate. Intra-day considering sales from the level of 1.1200


Analytics and EURUSD forecast daily  FORTFS



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