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Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 01.10.2019: active industrial sector in Germany continues to decline


The EUR / USD maintains the downward motion vector and is traded on the lowest level since May 2017.

In Europe, on Tuesday published data on the manufacturing sector PMI. In France, the figure fell from 51.1 to 50.1 points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity growth. Worse than the market expected data out of Germany. The indicator declined from 43.5 to 41.7 points, which is the lowest since July 2009. The report indicates a serious curtailment of production in Germany. It is obvious that against the background of the publication of these data, the possibility to recover the EUR / USD pair remains very limited.


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Today Reuters reported that in the coming days, the WTO will allow the US to lead the increase in duties on EU imports of aerospace products at $ 7.5 billion., In response to the illegal, US and WTO believe that EU subsidies by Airbus. This solution can increase pressure on the pair EUR / USD.

Later today, the market expects a sufficiently saturated the news calendar. The EU will be published preliminary data on consumer price index. During the American trading session performances by FOMC members Richard Clarida, James Bullard, Michelle Bowman and ECB President Mario Draghi. Also, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes today the US manufacturing sector PMI for September. the growth rate is expected from 49.1 to 50.4 points, which can provide additional support to the US currency.



On the chart EURUSD took a full breakdown of the level 1.0925. This is a strong bearish signal, so in the coming days is expected to continue the downward trend with the target at 1.0800.


Resistance Levels EURUSD: 1.0910, 1.0945, 1.0990.

EURUSD support levels: 1.0880, 1.0820, 1.0800.

The main scenario - further movement of the EURUSD down from current levels.

Alternative Scenario - EURUSDk 1.0910 correction and renewal of the downward movement.  

The market is dominated by negative fundamental background. dominated bearish signals on the graph. Intra-day considering sales from the levels of 1.0910 and 1.0945


Fundamental forecasts the EURUSD  FORTFS



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