EUR / USD - the ECB and the Fed's thinking on new incentives
17:00 MSK. US: Consumer Confidence for September.
The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD today 09/24/2019
The yield on US government bonds demonstrates the fall, which is negative for the dollar. US investment banks are actively discussing the launch of QE from the Fed. In the period from 2009 to 2014 GG Fed three times launched QE (buying bonds), which has always led to the depreciation of the dollar. Investment banks expect the QE-4 on October 31, immediately after the Fed meeting. Once this event is negative for the dollar, it is necessary to buy euros? But it is not so simple. On the eve, we got the disappointing data on business activity in the industry and the Eurozone services, prompting the head of the ECB to declare its readiness to increase stimulus measures, if required. "We need appropriate economic policies that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy," - said Mr. Draghi. It turns out, both the Central Bank are thinking of, how to increase the incentives for the economy. Who will win: the euro or the dollar? The chances are fifty-fifty. What to do in this case? Buy stock indexes # SP500 and # DAX30, since QE is always a positive effect on the stock market indices.
EURUSD recommendation: flat 1.0925 -1.1010
Negotiations on BREXIT again deadlocked
Course GBPUSD outlook today 24/09/2019
Chief Negotiator of the European Union BREXIT Michel Barnier believes that the current position of the UK on a "safety plan" for the Irish border, is not conducive to reaching an agreement between Brussels and London. Film about romance called BREXIT continues. Before the end of delay provided by ES just a little over a month and it is not clear that in the end realized: Britain out without the agreement or delay of 3 months. This factor makes investors refrain from buying the British currency. Support the pound may have the oil market, where J. Trump and Boris Johnson promised new sanctions against Iran.
GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2400 -1.2489
Reduced geopolitical tensions between the US and China
Course USDJPY outlook today 24/09/2019
Geopolitical tensions between the US and China is reduced - the administration of D. Trump temporarily will not impose duties on 10 types of Apple products. The Chinese delegation was satisfied with the two days of talks in Washington, which took place on September 19-20. The futures market in Chicago indicates a 60% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on October 30. Trade truce and expectations of interest rate cuts the Fed have a positive impact on the value of the stock markets, which in turn will support USDJPY, as the pair is correlated with the US stock market.
USDJPY recommendation: Buy 107.55 / 107.37 and take profit 108.01