11:30 MSK. Germany: PMI composite index
12:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI composite index
The forecast of the euro against the dollar on the EURUSD today 03/24/2020
Today, in many countries of the world will be published preliminary PMI indices for March. The fact that the data will be weak doubt no one, as the epidemic coronavirus COVID-19 has a negative impact on business activity. The question is how much data will be different from the median forecasts. Given the fact that the polls were Markit Economics in the first half of the month, when the world's leading Central Bank had not yet announce a stimulus program, we can expect the release of data worse than expected median, causing another round of demand for the dollar as the currency №1 in the world.
In the money market, the situation is normalized. In New York, US banks as part of operations overnight a second day in a row attracted less than $ 40 billion. In London, the overnight rate is reduced the second day in a row, which also indicates a decrease in demand for US currency. Now the rate of 0.211%, while the previous rate was about 0.3%. The interest rate again returned to the Fed's range. This factor will support the European currency. What we have in the dry residue? Euro weakness will experience after the publication of the PMI data, but the drawdown will buy, because now there are no problems with the dollar liquidity in the money market.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0751 / 1.0695, and take profit 1.0850
Forex GBPUSD forecast for today 03/24/2020
PMI data for the UK market is disappointed, because in addition to the British economy coronavirus negative effect BREXIT. After the publication of active pound can fall to 50-100 points, then it is possible to expect a reversal trend upwards. Why? On the eve of the US Federal Reserve has provided a new stimulus plan, according to which this week the central bank will buy Treasury on a daily basis in the amount of $ 75 billion bonds. Such baggage, just this week the bond market will get 375 billion dollars. This huge sum, which will lead to a decrease in the dollar deficit. And since there is no shortage, and the US dollar exchange rate will show a decline.
GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1575 / 1.1530, and take profit 1.1715
USDJPY forecast for today 03/24/2020
The balance of the US Federal Reserve renewed its historical maximum. The previous record lasted four and a half years, when in October 2015 the balance exceeded 4,504 trillion dollars. balance sheet now stands at 4.668 trillion dollars, and this figure will increase each week as the Federal Reserve began to actively buy Treasury and mortgage bonds. The more the Fed will buy, the worse it is for the US dollar. To what extent the US central bank will be able to buy assets? At the end of 2015, when the balance reached its peak, the ratio of assets to GDP was at the level of 0.245. Now the figure is 0,214. Thus, the Fed's balance sheet may be increased to 5.322 trillion dollars. But with the pace as now FED printing money balance reaches this level in a month, perhaps even 2 weeks, because tsenrobank actively took up the matter. Dollar is a negative signal, but judging from the history of past years, this negative market can ignore for a few weeks.
USDJPY recommendation: flat 109.66 -110.88