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Main » 2020 » February » 19 » Forex forecast and recommendations today 19.02.2020: EUR / USD - Euro Fed help, GBP / USD - Pound Correlation and oil, USD / JPY
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Forex forecast and recommendations today 19.02.2020: EUR / USD - Euro Fed help, GBP / USD - Pound Correlation and oil, USD / JPY

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Events today:

12:30 MSK. United Kingdom: CPI for January.

16:30 MSK. US: The number of new foundations bookmarks in January.

22.00 MSK. USA: Publication of minutes of the Fed.


The forecast EURUSD (Euro-dollar) today 02/19/2020


Why the euro falls and how long will it last? Depreciation of the euro has been largely due to the negative dynamics of the debt market, where the observed decrease in the yield spread between short-term and long-term bonds of the US Treasury. Historically, the strong decline in this indicator has always been a fall in EURUSD rate. Why yield spread fell? Most likely, no serious reasons no blame for the long weekend in the US (Monday exchanges and banks have not worked States). US Federal Reserve, which prints the dollars banal did not have time to do it. The new period of work of the printing press falls on February 15 (Saturday), and the first time fell only on Tuesday February 18th. Now the Fed will quickly build up, "to infuse liquidity into the banking system", that is for the euro as a "breath of fresh air."


EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0789 / 1.0775, and take profit 1.0830

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD Forecast for today pound-dollar 02/19/2020

 

At present, the pair GBPUSD formed a mixed background. On the one hand, we can expect the depreciation of the British against the background of the negative dynamics of the debt market, where the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced in relation to their counterparts in the US and Germany. The United Kingdom disappointed the market of weak statistics on the labor market - slowing average earnings growth will make UK consumers cut spending, which is negative for the economy. Especially now, when Britain withdrew from ES On the other hand, the oil market there are buying that can reassure traders to build up the "Long" for the pound as the British currency is correlated with the black gold. On Tuesday evening, the United States announced sanctions against a subsidiary of Russia's Rosneft - Rosneft Trading SA. What is this company? Registered in Switzerland and sells 10% of black gold Rosneft. It turns out the sanctions gets about 470 thousand barrels per day. Whether it will have a major impact on the oil market? Short-term Yes, because emotions are always in the market "overflowing". Medium-term it will not affect neither the oil market or the company itself Rosneft. Why? Americans themselves have given an answer to this question. Firstly, Rosneft Trading SA all partners is necessary to complete the transaction until 20 May (3 months, you can easily sell oil). Secondly, special. US Representative for Venezuela E. Abrams said that the United States believes that Rosneft Trading SA and after the imposition of sanctions may attempt to bypass the US restrictions, and allow States that the company will succeed. Why then impose sanctions? Sanction this policy,


GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2970 -1.3040

 

 

 

USDJPY forecast for today 02/19/2020
 

Market participants now expect an increase in cost of stock markets that have a positive impact on USDJPY quotes, as the pair is well correlated with the equity markets. Tomorrow morning, the Chinese central bank will announce its decision on interest rates. The Chinese Government has earlier this month promised stimulus measures from the monetary authorities. The more the Central Bank lowers rates and reduce reserve requirements for commercial banks, the better for the stock markets. Investors should wait for the US index of growth of quotations # SP500 to the psychological level of 3400 points.


USDJPY recommendation: Buy 109.95 / 109.80 and take profit 110.25

 

 

Analytics FreshForex

 

 

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