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Forex forecast and recommendations today 18.09.2019: EUR / USD - positive on the debt market, GBP / USD - Debt Market does not support growt


Events today:

11:30 MSK. UK: Consumer price index for August.

21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate.

The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD today 09/18/2019

In the first half of trading forex for EURUSD formed a positive background. Yield spreads of 10-year bonds in Germany / USA and Germany / UK show growth, which usually provides a good support for the euro. Next chords trading will depend on the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. The futures market in Chicago indicates a 65% probability of a rate cut by a quarter per cent. I recall that at the beginning of the month the value was at the level of 99%. Why is the trend changing? The thing is the volatility of the oil market. Oil has a significant impact on inflation, and the Fed to follow closely the changes in consumer prices in the economy. On the eve of oil fell by 6%, as in the United States there was a shortage of liquidity in the banking system. Day rates increased from 2% to 10%! Federal Reserve Bank of New York was able to quickly "extinguish the fire" - a branch of the Fed provided banks with funds amounting to 75 billion dollars.. This factor is to stabilize the oil market. Today I expect the growth of oil prices, as Washington accuses Iran of Saturday's terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, and this factor creates high geopolitical risks.


EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1054 / 1.1035, and take profit 1.1101





Pound Dollar GBPUSD forex forecast for today 18/09/2019

Pound on the eve showed strong growth of quotations on expectations of positive negotiations of Great Britain and the European Union on BREXIT. It should be noted that the debt market is not such optimism - the yield spread of government bonds the UK / US demonstrated, though modest, but all the same reduction. Against this background, I have no confidence that the upward trend will continue and be sustainable. Debt market should confirm the trend of the currency market, and now this is not observed.

GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2430 -1.2520




Dollar yen USDJPY Forex forecast for today 18/09/2019

Debt market indicates a decrease in quotations - yield spread US government bonds / Japan dropped to a three-day minimum. The ideal starting point for sales is just above yesterday's high 108.36. Can the market provide us with the opportunity to open a "short"? Most likely yes, as a meeting of the US Federal Reserve in the evening and on the event market is beginning to show short-term growth, then turn down. A similar movement was on Thursday in EURUSD at the meeting of the ECB, the euro initially showed an increase of 30 p., Then dived to 120 n.

USDJPY recommendation: Sell 108.44 / 108.70 and take profit 107.90




Analytics FreshForex



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