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Forex forecast and recommendations today 17.09.2019: EUR / USD - The correlation of oil and the euro, GBP / USD - the crisis in the UK,


Events today:

16.15 MSK. USA: Change the volume of manufacturing production for August.

EUR forex pair dollar EURUSD forecast for today 17/09/2019

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a strong positive trend in the oil market. Interruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons from Saudi Arabia were the most significant in terms of the history. Last time oil supplies fell by 5 million barrels per day in the world of 41 years ago, when the Iranian revolution. Then this factor caused the rapid rise in oil prices, which have tripled in two years. Significant problem, and that oil quotes are now 10% higher than last week, a logical phenomenon. For the euro is a positive signal, since the single European currency is correlated with oil BRENT. Next positive news is the negative macroeconomic statistics from the US industrial production, which will be published today at 16.15 MSK. It should wait for the release of weak data, since the index of business activity in the ISM industry in the last month of summer has dropped below 50%, indicating a severe recession. This factor, in turn, may cause a decrease in yield of US government bonds.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0980 / 1.0961, and take profit 1.1020





Pound dollar forex forecast pair GBPUSD today 17/09/2019

Today, there are both good and bad news for the pound. Let's start with the pleasant. Bullish rally in the oil market will support the pound, as the British currency is correlated with oil. Saturday's attacks in Saudi Arabia caused serious damage to the oil and gas industry of the kingdom, which forced the Saudis to reduce the production of hydrocarbons. The United States is prepared to punish Iran if the information is confirmed, what Tehran was behind the attack. Americans chose an enemy and is now actively looking for a way to prove the guilt of Iranian public. Tehran at the same time rejects all accusations. This whole situation has gone too far and rising geopolitical tensions could generate a steady upward trend in the oil market. BRENT growth of oil prices to the psychological level of 70.

The bad news for the pound - is the negative dynamics of the bond market, where yields on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced in relation to their counterparts in the US and Germany. Investors are pessimistic about the development of the political crisis in the UK, as Boris Johnson still stands for BREXIT without a deal with ES

GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2380 -1.2450




Dollar against the yen forex forecast USDJPY today 17/09/2019

On the eve of the Celestial Empire has published the latest macroeconomic data for August, which has remained in the shadow of events in Saudi Arabia. All the investment community is actively discussing the attack on the world's largest refinery, and completely forgot about the news from China. A newsletter should be interesting to say. Firstly, releases negative. Industrial production, investment and retail sales. Secondly, this factor indicates the need to mitigate the monetary policy of the Central Bank of China. China's State Council, in principle, the central bank is willing to offer start-up incentives. Incentives are now engaged in the ECB and the Fed. People's Bank of China just to join this trend. This factor has a positive impact on the stock markets and USDJJPY, as the currency pair has a strong correlation with the S & P500 index.

USDJPY recommendation: Buy 108.04 / 107.79 and take profit 108.51



FreshForex analyst




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