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Forex forecast and recommendations today 11.12.2019: EURUSD - short positions, GBPUSD - pre-election polls, USDJPY


Events today:

16:30 MSK. US: Consumer Price Index for November.

22.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate

Forex EURUSD forecast today 11.122019

The main event of the day the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Futures on a bet the Fed indicates almost zero probability of change rates today. This indicator is never wrong, and it can be trusted. Thus, after three consecutive rate cuts in July, September and October, today, the Federal Reserve will pause. On the eve of an economic adviser to Trump L. Kudlou stated in the media that the decision on the new duties for China is still pending, although earlier media on every street corner screaming that the duties would not be December 15. What is this game and who invented it? It is likely, the initiative comes from the American president. like Trump and inspire US stock growth, the Fed signaled that trade negotiations finally nothing has been decided, and geopolitical risks are present, so there is no need to think about raising interest rates, despite strong employment release published last Friday. Now market participants should pay attention to the dynamics of two exciting products - gold and copper. Gold in the last week fell by 1.1% (the yellow metal has always falls when there is no risk), and copper increased over the past five days to 5.3% (this metal is always growing, when there is no risk). Since the euro is strongly correlated with gold, it is expected to fall.

EURUSD recommendation: Sell 1.1100 / 1.1117, and take profit 1.1047




Forex forecast pair GBPUSD today 11/12/2019

Two reasons for possible growth of the British in the first half of trading. Firstly, the social. polls suggest a landslide victory of the Conservative Party in the next parliamentary elections in the UK, which will be held tomorrow. Additional support will pound the oil market, which has secured the confidence level of 63.54 BRENT grade and is preparing soon to test the next level of 64.69. The British pound and the black gold has historically highly correlated with each other. In the afternoon, should not expect a technical correction down, as investors take profits on long positions on the publication of the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve.

GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.3130 / 1.3110, and take profit 1.3181



USDJPY forecast for today 11/12/2019

The pair USDJPY today forex players waiting for a mixed background. On the one hand, possible growth rate USDJPY on a background of positive on the debt market, the yield spread of 10-year US / Japan government bonds demonstrates the growth of the last two trading days. On the other hand, in emerging equity markets have been a technical correction that signals a possible correction today on the US stock market. This is a negative signal for the pair USDJPY, as it is strongly correlated with the index # SP500.

USDJPY recommendation: flat 108.45 -109.15



FreshForex analyst 




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