18:00 MSK. USA: Statement by the head of the US Federal Reserve in Congress
The forecast of the euro to the dollar EURUSD today 02/11/2020
The main event of the day will be the speech of the US Federal Reserve in Congress. Each head of the Federal Reserve is obliged twice a year to speak to members of Congress a report on economic growth and the prospects for monetary policy. Traditionally, these performances are held in February and July. Today and tomorrow, Jerome Powell will speak in Congress - both shows are almost identical, respectively, all relevant information market will get today. All performances leadership Fed interest in the context of changes in interest rates. Now futures on a bet the Fed, which is traded on the stock exchange in Chicago CME and shows market expectations, indicating the possibility of lowering rates at the meeting on 16 September. In my opinion, Jerome Powell noted the need to keep low interest rates at the current level, and also allow the possibility of reducing interest rates if necessary. Dollar is a neutral signal, since the data is already priced in expectations. The dollar came under a wave of sales, Powell must firmly express readiness of the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Now there is no reason for this.
EURUSD recommendation: flat 1.089 -1.0950.
Forex forecast Pound \ GBPUSD dollar today 02.11.2020
The positive dynamics of the debt market points to a continuation of the short-term uptrend on the British currency. The yield on 10-year UK government bonds is increasing in relation to their counterparts in the United States and Germany - in such periods pound receives good support. However, not everything is as simple as it might seem at first glance. There are geopolitical risks, which can again cause a wave of sell-pound. First Minister of Scotland, the leader of the Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon said it will seek from the United Kingdom authorities to hold a referendum to withdraw Scotland from the UK, Scotland and then again returns to the European Union. What will now take Boris Johnson is not entirely clear, as in Scotland, with each passing day increases the number of supporters of the exit from the United Kingdom. Against this background, any statement from Scottish politicians may cause a sell-pound torque.
GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2890 -1.2950
Dollar Yen forex forecast USDJPY today 02/11/2020
Today, I look forward to the growth of the American stock market, which has a positive impact on the cost of the USDJPY, as the pair is strongly correlated with the US S & P500 index. Two reasons for the growth of the stock market can be identified. First, the futures on a bet the Fed indicates a high probability of reducing the discount rate at the September meeting. Low rates always have a good support for the stock market. Second, the Chinese financial authorities indicate that the Bank of China next week as lower interest rates to stimulate the economy during the struggle with the coronavirus. Thus, the reduction of interest rates by the world's two largest central banks embolden investors to build long positions.
USDJPY recommendation: Buy 109.73 / 109.59 and take profit 110.08