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Forex forecast and recommendations today 07/16/2020


Events today:

14.45 Moscow time. Eurozone: Publication of the ECB's decision on the main interest rate for July.

15.30 Moscow time. USA: Change in retail sales in July.

EURUSD forecast for today 07/16/2020

The ECB is to publish the results of its monetary policy meeting today. Investors do not expect a change in interest rates, since the monetary authorities have let down many times that they do not intend to cut rates. The only thing the regulator can do today is to revise the GDP forecast for 2021 towards growth, as the European economy is rapidly recovering from the quarantine caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a moderately positive signal for the euro. In general, I expect the upward trend in this currency pair to continue, as the excess of dollars in the financial system will provide good support for the euro.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1385 / 1.1365 and take profit 1.1439





GBPUSD Forecast Today 07/16/2020

In the interbank lending market in London, the trend towards a decrease in interest rates on dollar loans continues, which indicates an excess of dollar liquidity. The Federal Reserve prints money and buys out assets on a daily basis, which increases the money supply. This is a bad signal for the dollar, since a significant volume of emission in the past has always led to a depreciation of the American currency. Now the situation repeats itself, no other scenario should be expected. The pound will be further supported by an uptrend in the oil market, where investors are actively increasing long positions in black gold. Since August, the OPEC + countries are moving to a new stage of the deal, under which the global production cut of the alliance will be 7.7 million barrels per day, compared with 9.7 million barrels per day in May-July. OPEC + fixes an increase in oil demand and increases production quotas. In the third quarter, according to OPEC forecasts, demand will be at 30.9 mb / d. With an increase in production by 2 mb / d. the supply deficit will amount to 6.3 MB / d. The lack of supply has always had a positive impact on oil prices.

GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2528 / 1.2510 and take profit 1.2580



USDJPY Forecast Today 07/16/2020

A mixed background is being formed today. On the one hand, we can expect a decline in quotations against the background of negative dynamics of the money market, where there is a decrease in rates on dollar interbank loans. On the other hand, an uptrend in the US stock market will have a positive impact on the value of USDJPY as the pair has historically been correlated with the S & P500. Investors are ramping up longs in the US stock market on news of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine study. The vaccine was able to elicit the desired immune response in all volunteers early in the study. Relevant data are published in the New England Journal of Medicine. The experimental vaccine "elicited a rapid and vigorous immune response against SARS-CoV-2," the company said.

USDJPY recommendation: flat 106.40 -107.30



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