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09:55
Forex forecast and recommendations today 05/07/2020: EUR / USD - record unemployment in the USA

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Euro to dollar EURUSD forecast today 05/07/2020
 

The USDX dollar basket index is consolidating at a psychological level of 100.00. Investors are in no hurry to open positions before Friday's report on the labor market. On the eve of the ADP on the growth of unemployment by 20.2 million people. according to the results of April. The numbers are frightening, but one important factor must be taken into account - the American government pays unemployment benefits from March to June that exceed the wages of low-skilled workers. Against this background, some Americans hastened to quit their jobs to receive benefits and do nothing at the same time. Crowds of movers, couriers, cleaners, dishwashers decided to quit their jobs. Of course, among the victims there are highly qualified employees who worked in the companies affected by the coronovirus. But now we can’t say for sure how much real unemployment we have, and how much temporary caused by government actions. Against this background, it is now incorrect to compare current unemployment with unemployment during the Great Depression of 1929-1933, since there was real unemployment.


EURUSD recommendation: flat 1.0770 -1.0850

 

 

 

 

Pound dollar forex forecast GBPUSD today 05/07/2020


Today, two key factors can be distinguished that will have a strong impact on the course of trading. First, the Bank of England will announce the outcome of its meeting on monetary policy. Since the British economy has been experiencing significant difficulties lately amid the spread of the COVID-19 and BREXIT epidemics, the Bank of England today may announce an increase in the repurchase of assets on its balance sheet. For the pound, this is a negative factor, but many investors and banks expect this outcome, and the market reaction to this negative will not be as high as it could be. Secondly, I expect the continuation of the upward trend in the oil market, which will have a positive impact on the value of the pound, as the British currency correlates with black gold. Why can we expect an increase in oil prices? World Central Banks continue to “pump” the economy with money, during periods of high money growth, oil is growing. We can’t ignore the decline in black gold production in OPEC + and North America. US oil production over the past two months has declined by 1.2 million barrels. per day and according to the American oil industry, this is not the limit. OPEC + countries from May 1 reduced production by 9.7 million barrels. per day. Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Norway in total reduced production by 0.6 million barrels. per day. Thus, 11.5 million barrels left the market. oil per day. For oil prices, this is a good signal for growth. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55. We can’t ignore the decline in black gold production in OPEC + and North America. US oil production over the past two months has declined by 1.2 million barrels. per day and according to the American oil industry, this is not the limit. OPEC + countries from May 1 reduced production by 9.7 million barrels. per day. Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Norway in total reduced production by 0.6 million barrels. per day. Thus, 11.5 million barrels left the market. oil per day. For oil prices, this is a good signal for growth. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55. We can’t ignore the decline in black gold production in OPEC + and North America. US oil production over the past two months has declined by 1.2 million barrels. per day and according to the American oil industry, this is not the limit. OPEC + countries from May 1 reduced production by 9.7 million barrels. per day. Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Norway in total reduced production by 0.6 million barrels. per day. Thus, 11.5 million barrels left the market. oil per day. For oil prices, this is a good signal for growth. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55. per day and according to the American oil industry, this is not the limit. OPEC + countries from May 1 reduced production by 9.7 million barrels. per day. Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Norway in total reduced production by 0.6 million barrels. per day. Thus, 11.5 million barrels left the market. oil per day. For oil prices, this is a good signal for growth. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55. per day and according to the American oil industry, this is not the limit. OPEC + countries from May 1 reduced production by 9.7 million barrels. per day. Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Norway in total reduced production by 0.6 million barrels. per day. Thus, 11.5 million barrels left the market. oil per day. For oil prices, this is a good signal for growth. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55. The nearest expiration of the WTI oil futures contract on Tuesday May 19 and until then the oil market may show a good uptrend. Now it is advisable to buy #WTI oil with a target of 26.55.


GBP / USD recommendation: Buy 1.2350 / 1.2330 and take profit 1.2425

 

 

Dollar yen forex forecast USDJPY today 05/07/2020
 

The situation in this currency pair is quite controversial. On the one hand, we can expect a drop in quotes, since interest rates on dollar loans in the interbank market in London show a strong decline. The three-month Libor rate is now 0.47%, while a month ago it was 0.9% higher. This rate is now at a minimum for the last 4.5 years and this factor is negative for the dollar. On the other hand, we can expect growth of quotations, since the dynamics of the US stock market has a strong influence on this currency pair. The VIX “fear” index confidently consolidated below the important extremum 36.24, which is positive for the stock market. Against this background, we can expect the growth of the index # SP500 in the area of ​​2915 in the near future.


USDJPY recommendation: flat 105.60 -106.50

 

 

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