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Forex forecast and recommendations today 04/30/2020


Events today:

14.45 Moscow time Eurozone: publication of the ECB decision on the basic interest rate.

Euro dollar forex forecast EURUSD today 04/30/2020

The Federal Reserve on the eve of its intention to maintain low interest rates and redeem bonds to ensure the smooth functioning of the credit market. In my opinion, the Fed will buy back the assets before the presidential election, which will be held in November, since the support of the Federal Reserve is very important to Donald Trump. In the interbank lending market in London, there is a trend to lower dollar loan rates. The three-month rate in London now stands at 0.76%, which is near a three-year low. There are no problems with dollar liquidity in the banking system, which will provide the euro with good support. The ECB meeting is likely to be held today without any surprises, since K. Lagarde had previously stated that additional stimulus measures should not be expected.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0845 / 1.0830 and take profit 1.0900




Forex forecast GBPUSD today 04.30.2020

GBPUSD open Buy positions for two reasons. First, the soft monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve will have a negative impact on the value of the dollar. The Federal Reserve will keep the Lombard rate at 0.25% for a long time. I note that this is a historical minimum for this type of bet. Commercial banks receive money from the Fed almost for nothing. Secondly, the classic intermarket ratios of gold / oil and gold / copper show a decline, which signals an increase in demand for “risky assets” with which the pound has historically correlated.

GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2444 / 1.2427 and take profit 1.2501



USDJPY forecast today 04/30/2020

Today, a mixed background is forming for the USDJPY pair. On the one hand, we can expect a drop in quotations, against the background of negative dynamics in the credit market, where there is a drop in interest rates on loans in dollars. On the other hand, a bullish rally in the US stock market may support the pair, as it historically correlates with the index # SP500. The VIX “fear” index closed the day before at a two-month low, which signals the continuation of an uptrend in the # SP500 stock index. On the eve, the Fed kept the rate on excess reserves at 0.1%, which is positive for the stock market. Let me remind you that on January 29 of this year, FOMC decided to increase the rate on excess reserves from 1.55% to 1.6%, which had a negative impact on the stock market, since the yield on 10-year treasury bonds was below 1.6%, then the banks sent money to the Fed’s account at this rate. Now the rate on reserves is 0.1%, and the yield on treasury bonds is 0.6% - it is not profitable for banks to keep money in an account with the Fed.

USDJPY recommendation: flat 106.15 -107.00



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