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Forex forecast and recommendations today 04/20/2020


Euro to dollar today EURUSD forecast 04/20/2020

Central banks updated their statistics and it's time to take stock. Let's start with the interbank lending market. In London, the one-day loan rate last week has been stably at 0.07%. Throughout March, the rate has been growing, and since April 1 it has been falling. This is negative for the dollar. In New York, the rate of one-day loans stably keeps at the level of 0.03%. I note that since March 20, the rate has been consistently below 0.06%. The US Federal Reserve competently controls the situation in the interbank lending market. Next, let's move on to the Fed's balance sheet, which over the past week increased by $ 284 billion, to $ 6.36 trillion. This is a new historical high, which will be rewritten next week, and then again in a week. Etc. When will this process stop? There is no exact date yet. Apparently not soon. How will this event affect the value of the dollar? In the past, such a sharp increase in the Fed's balance sheet always leads to a weakening dollar.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0845 / 1.0830 and take profit 1.0900






Forex forecast GBPUSD today 04/20/2020

In the debt market, a positive trend remains for the pound: the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is growing in relation to its counterparts from the United States and Germany. The trend in the debt market is strong enough and it signals that the pound should update the maximum of the past week, which is located at 1.2646. Additional support for the pound will come from the demand for “risky assets”. The classic inter-market gold / oil ratio after rapid growth shows a decline, which signals an influx of capital into “risky assets” with which the pound has historically correlated well.

GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2450 / 1.2433 and take profit 1.2511



USDJPY forecast today 04/20/2020

On the one hand, we can expect growth in quotations, as investors are actively selling gold. This currency pair has historically been inversely correlated with yellow metal. Why are traders shorting gold? In my opinion, there is a profit taking on longs, since the precious metal showed good growth in the first half of April. On the other hand, the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve will contribute to the weakening of the dollar. For example, negative real yield on American 10-year government bonds is 0.85%, while on Japanese securities this indicator is also negative, but it is significantly less - only 0.35%. High negative returns in US instruments will contribute to the outflow of capital, which will cause a depreciation of the dollar.

USDJPY recommendation: flat 107.30 -108.00



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