18:00 MSK. US: ISM non-manufacturing index.
18.30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Energy Department.
EURUSD forecast of the dollar today 03.04.2020
On the eve of the US Federal Reserve has lowered the discount rate by 0.5%. Media said that it was an unexpected event, but last week, futures on the Fed rate at the exchange CME in Chicago, pointed out the likelihood of a rate cut at its meeting on March 18 at a rate of 99%. The fact that the rate will be reduced, it was clear as it was clear that they could reduce, and not waiting on March 18 as the day before the head of G-7 central banks held an unscheduled conference call. As is now the event will affect the dollar exchange rate? It is best to answer this question the bond market, where yields on 10-year US government bonds renewed historical minimum and reached the level of 0.93%. For dollar this is a serious negative. Incidentally, the futures on a bet the Fed indicates that the rate will be reduced at a meeting on March 18 with a probability of 90% and at a meeting on April 29 with a probability of 50%. The market allows for such a scenario, that by May 1, the rate in the United States will be in the range of 0.25-0.50%. Donald Trump talking about it in the last two years, it is necessary to make a zero rate. Is the Fed realizes this scenario practice? But even if it will not come to two more cuts, even a reduction sufficient to cause a rally in the European currency.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1135 / 1.1125, and take profit 1.1170
Forex forecast pair GBPUSD today 04/03/2020
US Federal Reserve is clearly the newsmaker of the week. Firstly, the reduced rate of 0.5%. Secondly, given the bank's money on the part of repo operations in the amount of 120 billion. $. Third, actively promise to print money and make them available to banks in case of demand on their part. And demand is really there, because on the eve of the Federal Reserve bankers have offered bonds worth 180.18 billion. $, However, the Fed took 120.62 billion. Orders of $ 59.5 billion. $ Rejected what is right, because the good little by little. The American Bankers are now no problems with money - Overnight rate is 1.59% on the interbank market, which is within the range of the Fed's rates. Let me remind you that the Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced reduction of interest rates by 0.5%, but this reduction will be implemented from today. What we have in the dry residue? Today, the Fed will buy Treasury bills 7, 52 billion. $, Against yesterday's volume of $ 1.42 billion. $. The more the Fed buys securities from the market, so much the worse for the dollar.
GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2800 / 1.2780, and take profit 1.2850.
USDJPY forecast for today 04/03/2020
At present, there are two contradictory factors. On the one hand, the US Federal Reserve today lowered the discount rate by half a percent to 1-1.25% range. Let me remind you that the Fed rate is not an integer, and the range. Some banks can give loan at 1%, and who will carry less and they will receive a loan of 1.25%. Dollar is a negative signal, and you can expect regular sales of the US currency. On the other hand, Fed also lowered the rate of excess reserves to a level of 1.1%. Now, banks will be more willing to engage in lending to the economy and speculation in the financial markets. Against this background, the growth of stock markets will support this currency pair, since there is a strong correlation between the S & P500 and USDJPY.
USDJPY recommendation: flat 107.11-107.90.