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Forex forecast and recommendations today 03.10.2019: EUR / USD - Markets await Fed lowering rates, GBP / USD


Events today:

17:00 MSK. US: ISM composite index for the non-production sphere in September.

The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD today 03/10/2019

The futures market in Chicago indicates a decrease in the US Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on 30 October. This will be the third cut in interest rates this year. Over the past five weeks, the Fed bought assets on its balance sheet in the amount of 98 billion. Dollars. - the last time such an increase was recorded in November 2014. Reduced rates and asset purchases traditionally contribute to a reduction of the national currency, in this case, we get the signal to the weakening dollar. At the same time, one should not expect a strong upward trend in the pair EURUSD, as investors expect interest rate cuts by the ECB for the December meeting.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0945 / 1.0930, and take profit 1.0970





Pound to dollar forecast GBPUSD today 10/03/2019

Good and bad news for the pound. Good news. The yield on 2-year US government bonds, which is closely correlated with the Fed rate is 1.5%, which is 0.375% lower than the discount rate of the Federal Reserve. This factor indicates a decrease in the Fed rates, which is negative for the dollar and positive for the pound. However, not all so simple. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he has no plan to BREXIT, and must be preparing to exit from ES October 31 without an agreement with Brussels. Of course, things can still change ten times, and we will hear comments from other British politicians, but now, in the short term, for the pound is negative. Perhaps Johnson does not have a plan, a plan may have, and he traded with Brussels at the best conditions for themselves.

GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2250 -1.2340




Dollar against the yen USDJPY outlook today 10/03/2019

Agency ADP employment growth recorded in September at the level of 135 thousand. People, which is 44 th. Below the average for the last twelve months. Earlier ISM recorded a decrease in employment in the manufacturing sector. This factor has changed the vector of the futures market in Chicago, where the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates increased from 50% to 75%. On the one hand, it is a bad signal for the dollar, and you can expect a decrease in prices. On the other hand, a pair USDJPY strongly correlated with the US stock market, which makes a correction on September maxima at 4.5%. According to the P / E multiple yield US stock market was 3.92%, against a 1.6% yield on 10-year government bonds. Thus, the yield of the stock market is almost 2.5 times higher, the bond market. Last time such a phenomenon has been observed in early August and finished strong growth of the stock market. Would history repeat itself this time? Probably yes.

USDJPY recommendation: flat 106.80 -107.50



FreshForex analyst



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