First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The impression is that Thanksgiving Day in the United States began to celebrate not on Thursday 28 November, and on Monday the 25th. The last week of the autumn was unusually quiet, and until Friday the volatility did not exceed 40 points, will drive traders into hibernation. Positive GDP data and US production has balanced growth of the consumer price index (CPI) in the Euro zone. Even the controversial law on support for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong, signed by President Trump on Thursday, coupled with the sharp reaction to it in Beijing, did not produce to the markets is almost no impression.
Recall that our previous forecast said that in the current situation, the pair could not break the support 1.1000, and after one or two unsuccessful attempts to turn around and go up. That's exactly what happened. Even spurt at the end of the week to the level of 1.0980 was unsuccessful, and the couple soon returned to where and started the five-day, - the zone 1.1015-1.1020;
- GBP / USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK, since the last decade of October, the pair is moving in a sideways channel 1.2780-1.2980. Thanksgiving Day in the United States only this channel narrowed to a range 1.2825-1.2950, and the finale of the week was made at the level of 1.2935;
- USD / JPY. Most of the experts (65%) expect that within a week the pair will reach a height of 109.50. This forecast was justified by 100%. Even China's threat against the United States because of its support of protesters in Hong Kong did not prevent the increase in the dollar. Threats threats, and a trade agreement to be signed. As a result, in the evening of Friday the pair has risen to the level of 109.66 and closed the trading session at 109.44;
- cryptocurrency. This is the market, which, unlike the forex never sleeps. And first a few words about the background of news, statements and actions of the financial mega-regulator. So representatives of the European Central Bank does not exclude the release of their own tokens. He supported the idea of "crypto-euro" even a board member of the ECB's Benoit Ker, who called bitcoin to this "evil product of the 2008 financial crisis." South Korea so generally recognized cryptocurrency, passed a bill on the regulation of virtual assets. But the Central Bank of Russia has once again shown its opposition to alternative financial products, disagreed with the proposal to ban the bitcoin payments and other coins.
But, of course, the hardest on the market this fall affected the news from China. Recall that recently the regulator of Shanghai has decided to liquidate the company, engaged in trade cryptocurrency and Beijing regulator declared illegal exchange operations with cryptocurrency. On Friday, November 22, announced his position, and mega-regulator - the People's Bank of China, ordered all businesses to eliminate any improper practices with kriptoaktivami. Supported a total ban of digital currency and representatives of such powerful forces as the Communist Party of China. As a result, investment in bitcoin in China declined in late November, more than 15%.
In general, over the past week market cryptocurrency "shrunk" more than $ 20 billion, accounting for nearly 10% of its volume. But, despite this, Bitcoin for the week as a whole, can be called successful. Feeling on Monday, November 25 six-month bottom at $ 6.585, the reference cryptocurrency strayed upwards, having rested in the strong level of $ 7,800. In the period from September 26 to October 22, he made for a pair of BTC / USD strong support. And now a lot of chances to turn into an equally strong resistance.
Quotes top altkoynov such as Ripple (XRP / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), the whole movement is repeated "big brother". However, if compared with Friday 22 November, bitcoin has grown by about 5%, altkoyny only able to win back losses, returning to their original positions.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. It is hoped that with the onset of winter, bears, and bulls, finally go to sleep. Especially because these days we are waiting for a number of quite important events. This performance of the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, and the publication of the US data on business activity (ISM) in the first half of the week, the euro area GDP data on Thursday and the US labor market (including the NFP) on Friday.
It is projected that such an important parameter as the number of new jobs created is with the / x (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), could grow by more than 40% in the US (from 128K to 183K). What may still lead to a breakdown of support 1.1000. At this point, the fact that the pair could fall to 1.0880-1.0925 area, 65% of experts agreed, which was supported by 95% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. On the way to the south of the pair has another support - 1.0940.
The opposite view is held by only 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to them, starting from the support of 1.0980-1.1000, the pair will go to the north. Objectives: - 1.1100 and 1.1175;
- GBP / USD. The results of the parliamentary elections, and, respectively, and the future Brexit, will be known only through the week and a half after December 12. In the meantime, investors are guided by statements of politicians and - a little - on the macro-economic indicators the UK, EU and US. On top of the pound presses the decline of yield on 10-year government bonds the UK in relation to similar securities of its "competitors". Below the same, due to the correlation of the British currency to the "black gold", it pushes up the upward trend in the oil market. And here we must bear in mind that the OPEC summit next week + may well extend the limit on carbon production, which will lead to a shortage of oil and increase its value, especially in the III and IV quarters of 2020. In general, in all that relates to the pound until there is complete uncertainty.
Suitable look and forecasts of experts - 40% of the growth of the currency, 40% - of its fall, and 20% - just a shrug. So we can assume that before the parliamentary elections GBP / USD pair will continue to move in a sideways channel in the area of consolidating Pivot Point 1.2900;
- USD / JPY. Most investors considered unimportant differences USA and China over human rights in Hong Kong. In their view, bargain, sooner or later will be enclosed, which will lead to the rise of the dollar, including the yen. The growth of the US stock market and the SP500 index, according to 85% of the experts, now will push USD / JPY pair up - a sign level 110.00 (subject to slippage - 110.25). However, steam can then turn around and return to the south to the first intersection of the horizontal support and an uplink channel bottom boundary near 109.00. And then fall even lower - the next support levels 108.50 and 107.80. Fully support this scenario graphical analysis on H4 and 15% oscillators D1, which according to the indications, the pair is already overbought;
- cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is still within the descending channel, which was launched on June 26. Occurred last week rebound some experts call "dead cat leap", considering that soon we will see another collapse BTC / USD pair is now up to the level of $ 5,000. However, according to most analysts, for some time the pair will stay within the $ 7,000-8,000 side corridor.
Optimism and hope for the breakdown of the upper boundary of the corridor retain about 40% of the experts. In this case, for example, well-known financial analyst, Joseph Young, though I am confident in the long-term growth cryptocurrency market does not preclude the Bitcoin fall to $ 3000-4000. A similar opinion was expressed with Yang and co-founder of the investment firm KR1 Martin McDonagh. "Now - he says - hesitating like a pendulum, the market once again wants to know where the bottom is. But, in my opinion, we are in the early stages of a bull market, and will soon see rising highs on the way to new heights. "
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.