First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Because of what is happening within Brexit, it depends not only on the pound, and the euro but, first explain how the situation is with the release of the UK from the EU a week before release (if, of course, happen). And the situation looks like ... a vicious circle.
On the one hand, the prime minister Boris Johnson refuses to withdraw the draft agreement on the withdrawal from the EU as long as the Parliament will not agree to elections on December 12th. But Parliament did not agree, as the opposition wants to Johnson ruled exit option without Agreement with the EU, and the EU agreed to extend the terms of this release. The EU, on the other hand, before deciding how long to extend the Brexit, waiting for the consent (or disagreement) of the Parliament on December 12th snap elections.
All clear? Or not? Judging by the reaction of the market to understand the current situation is difficult, but even harder to make any predictions. That is why last week we did not see any significant jumps in prices. Several euro weakened its position in relation to the dollar, but the drop was only 100 points, and the pair completed a five-day period at the level of 1.1080.
Помимо бесконечной неопределенности с Brexit, дополнительное давление на евро, безусловно, оказывает замедление европейской экономики. Несмотря на усилия ЕЦБ, инфляция никак не может достичь целевого уровня в 2%. В сентябре европейский регулятор понизил ключевую процентную ставку до отрицательных -0,5% и объявил о намерении возобновить программу количественного смягчения (QE). 31 октября нынешний глава ЕЦБ покидает свой пост, и возможно, что с приходом нового руководителя, Кристин Лагард, политика Европейского Центрального Банка претерпит какие-либо изменения. Но на данный момент, с точки зрения инвесторов, перевес на стороне доллара, так как ставка ФРС США положительна и составляет 2%;
– GBP/USD. Итак, голосование по условиям Brexit в Парламенте Великобритании 19 октября вместо ясности запутало ситуацию еще больше. В результате «супер-суббота» не привела к супер-скачкам на финансовых рынках, а вызвала лишь плавное снижение британской валюты примерно на 200 пунктов, вернув котировки к уровням семидневной давности – в зону 1.2825;
- USD / JPY. Giving the outlook for this pair in the previous week, we noted a complete confusion and discordance among analysts, and among the technical analysis tools. It seems that speculators on the time lost interest in the Japanese currency, with the result that most of the time, the pair moved into the hallway 108.45-108.75. Two attempts to reverse the situation of bears in the calculation can not take it, as the pair quickly returned to the super-narrow channel width of only 30 points, closer to the upper boundary of which put the final point, having stood at around 108.65;
- cryptocurrency. In the words of one analyst, the head of Facebook in the "hammered the last nail in the coffin kriptovalyutnogo" last week. More precisely, it drove Zuckerberg and congressmen together during his appearance before the Committee on Financial Services of the US House of Representatives. The Congressmen expressed concern not just spread cryptocurrency general and Libra Project, in particular. They stated that cryptocurrency pose a threat to the traditional foreign exchange market and can be used to finance criminal activities and money laundering.
But that's not all - during the hearing it was suggested to reflect on the bill a total ban on cryptocurrency.
As for Zuckerberg, he said that Libra will not start until it receives permission control. And in general, he said, Libra - a risky project, and he Zuckerberg, not at all sure that it was his initiative can bring him profit.
Recall that just before this on the background of the problems with the US legislation "included a reverse gear» Telegram, delayed the launch of its cryptocurrency TON.
We have repeatedly written that kriptorynok maximum depend on the news background. And news from the US Congress led to the fact that on Wednesday October 23 the reference currency fell to a five-month low, usohnuv per day by almost $ 1,000 and reaching a bottom at $ 7.330.
But this crypto surprises were not over and it turned out to bury the market early. On Friday October 25 the market exploded and Bitcoin course made an incredible jump of $ 3,000, adding to the maximum 40% and reaching $ 10,500.
It was the biggest increase since February 2014, and called him again the news -. That Chinese President Xi Jinping has supported the development blokcheyna. In the editorial of the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, reported this statement, not a word was not about Bitcoin, nor cryptocurrency in general, but the bulls and they were not needed.
After the bitcoin went up almost all altkoyny of the top 100. Ethereum (ETH / USD) jumped nearly 30%, ripple (XRP / USD) - 31% laytkoyn (LTC / USD) - 35%.
As a result, the owners of the coins and traders who have already been opened long positions in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency, were able to get a very significant profit. Those who have "jumped in the last car of the departing train" suffered no less significant losses - a pair of BTC / USD quickly turned and collapsed to the level of $ 9.055 - strong support on which it was based, since mid-June.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Some analysts believe that the coming week may be the most "hot" this year. Apart from the fact that in the Thursday, October 31, the United Kingdom may withdraw from the European Union, on the eve, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve can lower interest rates on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. It looks like the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbed to the same exhortations President Trump. In October, his office has launched a program of buying assets by 60 billion dollars a month, and now one more step in the direction of stimulating the US real sector. Powell somehow really does not want to call what is happening quantitative easing (QE), but maybe he's right - some experts believe that there is just another issue of dollar supply and pumping up the economy unsecured money. With a certain degree of probability it is connected with the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. And Trump is seeking re-election for a second term, pressure on the Fed, calling for lower rates further, even to zero.
Shortly before the Fed meeting, October 30, will be announced the preliminary data on US GDP and is projected they will show slowing economic growth in the III quarter, from 2.0% to 1.6%. If so, then Trump will get another lever of pressure on Powell and he headed the Fed.
Among the other events of the coming week it is worth noting a preliminary assessment of GDP growth and inflation data in the euro zone, which will be announced on Thursday 31 October. On Friday November 1st is traditionally there are data on the US labor market (including the NFP), and business activity index from the ISM.
Summarizing the expert forecasts for the coming week, to form any definite opinion could not: 50% of the fall in the pair, 50% of its growth. A similar discrepancy observed in the indicators D1 to testimony. This is due to the uncertainty and the decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate, and with the release / absenteeism Britain from the EU.
It should be noted that even if the transaction does not exit without Brexit will get a reprieve, it could still have a negative impact on the euro, resulting in a pair of rush to the low of October 01 1.0880 area, which could be achieved in the course of November. With such a prognosis agree 70% of the experts. Major support levels are located at 1.1065, 1.1000 and 1.0940.
The signing of the agreement with the EU, supported by the Parliament of Great Britain, a pair of push up the zone 1.1350-1.1400. Resistance 1.1180, 1.1240 and 1.1300;
- GBP / USD. For the pound in the near future the majority of experts (60%) does not expect anything good. In complete agreement with a graphical analysis on D1 and 80% for H4 indicators, they wait pair falling to the level of 1.2500. Support 1.2770 and 1.2580.
On the other hand, 20% for H4 oscillator signals already supplied pereprodannosti pair and 90% of the "colleagues" on D1 painted green light. Also, look to the north and 85% of trend indicators on the D1, the goal - the height of 1.3200.
The list of "green activists" this week, there were only 30% of the experts. The remaining 10% have refused to make any predictions, and perhaps they are right - British politicians are able to turn to dust any arguments, estimates and projections;
- USD / JPY. In theory, the target for the yen remained unchanged. Support zone - 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, resistance - 109.00 and 109.85. But it is in theory. In reality, long-term bonds, which is strongly correlated with the Japanese currency, are sandwiched in a narrow range, constraining risk appetite of investors. Of course, the above-mentioned events of the week, as well as the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates on Thursday, October 31 could stir interest in the yen, but this is again in theory. With almost 100% probability regulator leave rate unchanged at 0.1%.
Interestingly, the bank JPMorgan Chase analysts believe the negative rates of the central "bad idea" of the banks, which only hinders economy out of recession. Agree with them 80% of the surveyed experts, it is expected that the yen will continue to fall, the couple finally breaks through the upper boundary of the corridor and 108.45-108.75 rise a little further north. But graphical analysis H4 predicts continuation of the sideways trend for at least the first half of the week;
- cryptocurrency. So, a week BTC / USD pair at first rapidly lost in the price of $ 1,000, and then more rapidly risen to $ 3,000, and then collapsed again, usohnuv in price by $ 1,445. Trying to give a prognosis in a similar volatility - a thankless task. Focus on technical analysis tools - generally useless. It is necessary to give the market the opportunity to at least calm down a little and understand what is really meant Hu.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.