First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The dollar index since early February has added 2.5%, reaching maximums in May 2017. Euro continues to take positions. Began on January 01 offensive dollar weakened European currency is already on 440 points. Only in the last three weeks of continuous decline she lost weight by nearly 300 points, or 2.7%.
During this time the experts had put forward many reasons for what is happening, often citing fears of coronavirus. But even here, talking about one and the same, they manage to do the opposite conclusion. As a result, someone refers to the dollar a safe haven, while others, on the contrary, considers it quite risky asset that will bring losses to investors as soon as the peak of the epidemic will be passed, and China's economy starts to recover. It is not excluded that this will begin to occur in the near future, as China's management is taking active efforts not only to combat the epidemic, but also to stimulate the production and mitigate the monetary policy. One such measure was the reduction of the People's Bank of China on Thursday 20 February the interest rate on the yuan from 4.15% to 4.05%.
We can not agree with those experts who believe that the catalyst for the fall of the pair EUR / USD, in the first place, is the weakness of the European economy and ultra-low interest rates, making the dollar much more attractive to investors. In addition, against the euro plays a truce in the howl of trade between the US and China.
The further decline of the euro, most analysts voted last week (60%), supported by 100% of trend indicators and oscillators is 65%. While the remaining 35% have already served signals oversold euro. If you look at the quotation EUR / USD, they are fairly accurate reflection of such a distribution of forces. First pair went down, and then, starting from the middle of the week, moved in a sideways trend, turning the horizon into 1.0800 is support in the resistance. Divergence with the testimony of many oscillators, for example, MACD, inspired holders of long positions in the hope of a trend reversal. However, this does not happen, the fall only stopped. And only at the very end of five days the pair has made a sharp leap upwards, finishing at the level of 1.0848 and thereby zeroing the sum total of the week;
- GBP / USD . His contribution to the weakening of the EU economy and has made Britain - after Brexit in the European Union budget for a deficit of € 75 billion, and how to make up such a serious loss, so far, it seems, nobody knows. The very same British currency, as opposed to the euro, we can say that has stabilized in relation to moving along the line of 1.3000 and the dollar, since the last decade of November 2019. Volatility remains high enough (220 points last week), but the pair repeatedly returned to this support / resistance area.
During February the bears repeatedly tried to oust the defending British pound dropping below the horizon 1.3000. Last week, the pair even reached a local bottom at 1.2850, but ... then again turned, rushed up and completed the work week at around 1.2960;
- USD / JPY . Giving a forecast for the past week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on the D1 and H4, turned their eyes to the north. And they were right. The pair not only overcame the symbolic level of 110.00, but without even noticing several resistance levels, soared to a height of 112.20, reaching a peak in April 2019. The main reason for the sharp drop in interest referred to the yen as a safe-haven, with the improvement of the situation with a coronavirus, and as a consequence, the market turns towards more risky assets. Against the yen also played the Chinese government actions to support companies affected by the epidemic.
After taking a couple of altitude 112.00 there was a correction, and the final chord of the week was made at the level of 111.60;
- cryptocurrency. Company Longhash detail analyzed data for buying and selling bitcoins over the past two years and has made interesting conclusions. So, the researchers found that the lowest average price of Bitcoin observed on Fridays at 6:00 am GMT. In essence, this means the best time to open long positions. At midnight on a single time (UTC) on Mondays and Tuesdays BTC price by an average of $ 170 higher than on Friday. It turns out that Monday or Tuesday - is the best time to exit from Friday's Long or to enter into a short position until next Friday (when the price statistics below).
The analysts Longhash warned that kriptorynok very volatile, so is unlikely to be considered the results of their research investment advice.
And this is very true remark, especially if you look at the results of last week. On Friday morning, February 14 Bitcoin price was really low. And if the trader is at that moment opened a long position, you would have received a good profit by the end of the day. But if he left the position open until Monday the 17th of February, I would have lost a tidy sum, because bitcoin during this time fell by about $ 600.
Over the past seven days, the main cryptocurrency several times tried to gain a foothold above $ 10,000, but to no avail. Local bottom pair BTC / USD was fixed at $ 9.290, and among the reasons for this decline are called in the first place, the tightening pressure on the bitcoin by the US authorities, including President Trump, Fed Chairman Powell and the head of the Ministry of Finance Mnuchina.
Naturally, going down, the main cryptocurrency pulled him and top altkoyny including Ethereum (ETH / USD), laytkoyn (LTC / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), and fear and greed index bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) rolled from the "greed" to a state of "fear".
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD . Global markets are oversaturated liquidity, including both major currencies. It seems that the central banks do not know other ways to support the economy, but to pump it with cheap money. Fed spends 60 billion dollars a month on the purchase of promissory notes, the ECB buys securities for 20 billion euros, the Bank of Japan - to 80 trillion yen. Do not lag behind other countries regulators. And, at the moment of the money in the markets, we can observe the quotations fluctuations in one direction or another.
Today the dollar is a cross between the classic protective and risky assets. This is due, and political factors, and the state of the US economy, and the actions of the Fed, which opportunities to reduce interest rates is far from exhausted, as distinct from its European and Japanese "brothers".
All this allows 70% of analysts expect a continued growth of the US currency and reduce its minimum to 1.0750 zone. Here it should be noted that the survey of experts was conducted to short-term rally in the pairs of the north on Friday before closing markets. It is also important that the transition to the forecast in March, the same number - 70% - experts expect the return of the pair to the level of 1.10000.
As for the indicators, if in the morning on Friday, February 21 the vast majority of them were colored red by the evening the situation has radically changed and has already purchased 70% on H4 green. On the D1, however, the advantage still remains on the side of the bears - 75% of trend indicators and oscillators still point to the south. The next support 1.0800 and 1.0775;
- GBP / USD . Pivot Point last three months can be regarded as 1.3000 level, but at the same time, starting in January 2020., There has been some increase in bearish sentiment. That is why 55% of the experts expect that the pair once again test the 1.2850 low of the previous week and, if successful, will fall by another 80-100 pips below. The remaining 45% of the experts expect the pound to strengthen and lift the pair to the zone 1.3000-1.3070. The next target - 1.3120.
Among the indicators on the D1 at the end of a week full of discord reigns, but at 60% H4 trend indicators and oscillators indicate a rise in the pair.
A compromise offers graphical analysis on the D1, prorisovyvaya decline in the end of February to the level of 1.2685, and then return to the first decade of March, first at the level of 1.3000, and then to a height of 1.3200;
- USD / JPY . It is clear that the vast majority of indicators are looking up. However, already about 15% of the oscillators provide signals about overbought. Graphical analysis D1 shows that in the beginning of week some time hold steam in the range of 111.25-112.00 then goes upward in zone 112.40-112.70.
Among the experts, 75% believe that the pair would return to the zone 109.65-110.25, however, it may take two to three weeks. The remaining 25% of analysts expect the pair rise above $ 112.40, the goal - 113.70;
- cryptocurrency. Founder and CEO Galaxy Digital Company Mike Novogratz convinced that until the end of 2020 Bitcoin is firmly entrenched in the historical maximum of $ 20,000. According to experts, now bitcoin is unstable, but the end of the year will definitely overcome the historical maximum of $ 20,000, or at least to reach it. This can happen before, a couple of months, thanks halvingu. A positive factor for the growth of the first cryptocurrency will also be governed by the emergence and adoption of asset kriptobirzh conservative institutional investors. In addition, it plays into the hands Bitcoin is capable of, and continues to issue fiatnyh currencies. "The main digital asset, like gold acts as a hedge fund, protecting investors against inflation and the monetary policy of the states, leading to the depreciation of money," - said Novogratz.
Even better future for other known Bitcoin Bitcoin enthusiast broadcaster Max Keizer. He raised its forecast for the price of this cryptocurrency to $ 400,000 per coin, increased it once in four times. By participating in the information show Infowars, Kaiser said that its previous prediction of 2012 of $ 100,000 is too conservative.
In general optimism retain 70% of the experts expecting in the coming weeks to see bitcoin in the area of $ 10,500-11,000. The remaining 30% of specialists as the lower strap for fall couples BTC / USD is called the level of $ 8,000.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.