First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The second consecutive week stop-loss orders on long positions on this pair are activated one after the other. Bulls back alternately handing over all their lines of defense. The pair not only updated the lows of this and last years, it has reached the minimum values from May 2017. And most interesting is that of a single good reason for such a collapse of the European currency is not. Can be attributed to the collapse of the pair USD / CHF in "Black Thursday" in January 2015 or the fall of the pound on the results of the referendum on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. And there seems to be nothing extraordinary happened.
Experts call the set of all possible reasons, which together, and could lead to the fact that over the past two weeks, the dollar pushed the euro to 270 points, with almost no corrections. Among them is the difference in the positions of the ECB and the Fed regarding easing (QE) and the value of interest rates and fears of a prolonged recession in the eurozone caused neradostnye macroeconomic indicators of the German economy and the EU. Not the last word said coronavirus, because, unlike the United States, the European economy is more vulnerable to the risks of the Chinese. Traditionally supported the dollar series placings US Treasury government bonds.
It is difficult to say which of these factors oriented respondents experts, but the majority of them turned out to be absolutely precise forecast. Recall that 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on the N4, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators 85% were confident that the pair will continue to fall. The goal - to test the low of November and October 2019. in the area of 1.0880. The test was a success, and as a result the pair completed a five-day week at around 1.0835;
- GBP / USD . The British pound as the British set out to prove that the yield of their country from the EU has been absolutely correct. If the former European "colleagues" the pound, the euro fell continuously, the British the past week, on the contrary, grew, gaining nearly 200 points and reached the heights of the 1.3070 high.
Initially, after the surprise resignation of finance minister Sajid Javid, dissenting from the personnel policy of the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, the pound had gone down, but turned around very quickly after the new head of the Ministry of Finance of Great Britain became the Rishi Sunako - an experienced financier and, concurrently, son-billionaire. Tax cuts and increased fiscal spending, which is the apologist Sunako can seriously heat up interest in British currency.
Forecast, the last week, believed that in the case of a reversal trend upwards, overcomes the resistance of 1.2975 lb and possibly pierce the upper boundary of the channel 1.2800-1.3000. And so it happened - the final chord of steam supplied at a height of 1.3045;
- USD / JPY . It seems to take the level of 110.00 bulls can not do. Yet under force. The pair tried to gain a foothold above him back in mid-January, tried to do it in February. But again to no avail. It did not help the strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven. With easy access to the middle of the week to the level of 110.13, the pair reversed and eventually finished at 109.77;
- cryptocurrency. What is the best refuge from the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus? Dollar? Yes, indeed, he shows convincing growth against the euro and some other currencies. But even more convincing growth in relation to the dollar itself demonstrates bitcoin. Last week, 80% of analysts believed that a pair of BTC / USD will reach $ 10,450. And this prediction was 99.99% correct - on Thursday February 13 it quotes reached a height of $ 10.490. Thus, from the beginning of January, the cost of basic cryptocurrency increased by more than 45%.
So, then, super-shelter - is bitcoin?
However, as it turned out, there are even more attractive assets. Demand for bitcoin has pushed the demand for such high-end altkoyny like Ethereum (ETH / USD), laytkoyn (LTC / USD), Ripple (XRP / USD), and others. And if before they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency, but now some of they have gone far ahead. For example, the Ethereum beginning of the year rose by 120%, but only in the last week its growth amounted to 35%.
Such activity alternative coins could not but affect the bitcoin share in the total capitalization kriptorynka - if in the beginning of January it was 70%, that to date, declined to 62.4%. So the debate about the best asset of refuge is not over yet.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD . Calendar of the coming week is filled with information for professionals on fundamental analysis. Although, as regards the euro area, the forecasts in advance not promise her anything good. It is expected that the index indicators that characterize the state of the business environment in Germany and the Eurozone, - the ZEW Tuesday 18 February and 21 February Markit - will be lower than previous. Pessimism can add and report on the ECB meeting on February 20. All this can lead to further euro losses against the US dollar. Open up trend will be positive news from the front against the coronavirus, but there is yet to predict anything difficult.
100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 painted red. Look down and 65% oscillators. Objectives: - 1.0700 and 1.0525. However, the remaining 35% of the oscillators are already oversold, which is a very strong signal to the possible trend reversal upwards. Or, at least a major correction that, according to indications on the graphic analysis H4, may return to a zone pair 1.0900, and may bring to the mark and 1.1000.
At this point, the pair of growth vote only 40% of the experts, however, the transition to the monthly forecast, the number increased to 65%;
- GBP / USD . It is possible that in addition to the resignation of finance minister Sajid Javid, United Kingdom in these difficult times is able to present and other surprises. As they say about Brexit, the farther into the forest - the more wood. While the picture is as follows. Trend indicators to indicate H4: top 95% 5% down, 75% face, 25% down on top D1. Oscillators: at H4 90% are green, 10% - in the overbought zone on the D1 - mess. No more or less explicit point of view and analysts, though, the transition to the medium-term forecast, the majority of them (65%) on the side of the bulls. Nearest bullish purpose - 1.3200, resistance levels are 1.3070, 1.3115 and 1.3160. Support - 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2940 and 1.2880;
- USD / JPY . Among the indicators, after a week of sideways trend of this pair, complete discord. As for the experts, that 70% of them supported by graphical analysis on the D1 and H4, looking north. According to their scenario, the pair, in the end, has to overcome the resistance of 110.00 and up for another 80-100 points higher. The remaining 30% of analysts remain pessimistic. In their view, the decline of the stock market and government bond yields could lead to a drop in the pair to the zone 109.10-109.30, the following support 108.30 and 107.65.
- cryptocurrency . Forecasts guru kriptorynka, as usual, filled with enthusiasm. During the year, bitcoin exchange rate will rise to $ 40,000, as stated co-founder Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee in an interview on CNBC television channel. Among the reasons for price hike cryptocurrency he took halving, flash coronavirus, geopolitical instability and overcome the 200-day moving average. According to Li, last year the White House deliberately prevented the rally first cryptocurrency. But now the US government is distracted by the election of a new president and will not be able to organize a campaign against Bitcoin.
Further growth of the main cryptocurrency forecasts and partner Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano investment company. He was confident that the explosive growth rate bitcoins will be due to the growing demand for the asset and its limited issue, with the result that by the end of 2021 it will reach $ 100,000.
Overall, 60% of analysts expect that in February-March, a couple of BTC / USD will overcome the mark of $ 11,000. However, if only 20% of the experts cried last week: "Be wary of the trend reversal!", But now their number has doubled, reaching 40%. Some experts believe that the increase in the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency, which began in January, is a bubble, inflated by a "ghost money". As they say on some trading floors periodically appear larger orders that are not intended for the purchase or sale cryptocurrency, and to create the illusion of demand for the asset. With their help, someone provokes investors to purchase coins, thereby inflating its price. "You can push the price so high only by means of a" ghost money ". At some point, people will want to cash out their earnings crazy, but they can not find anyone, who can sell the asset. It will be a show! " - I wrote on Twitter one of kriptoskeptikov.
And in this situation, the brokerage company NordFX offers probably the most optimal option trading cryptocurrency - a kind of CFDs prices, without actual delivery of the coins. In this case, opening long or short positions, you can be sure that, even if the Bitcoin price soar to heaven, or, on the contrary, would collapse to zero, you will receive the due you profit.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.