First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD . As we know, life is like a zebra - after the white band there comes a black, and then - on the contrary. It happened at this time: After a fun New Year's holidays come suspense full US war with Iran. But after a few days it became clear that both parties want to avoid a full-fledged conflict and tension in the geopolitical field gradually began to decline, which is clearly seen on the oil quotes.
For the US dollar last week things went well at first. The US currency rose due to new record highs in the US stock market and the optimistic statements of the Federal Reserve leaders. So, the president of the Richmond Fed, Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and labor market in the US look strong. And according to the vice-president of the Fed's Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization fully corresponds to the state of the economy. According to the forecasts, GDP growth in the US in 2020 may reach 2-2.5%, and even more.
Until Friday 10 January the dollar has grown, and in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on the H4 EUR / USD pair dropped to the 1.1100 support and then by another 15 points. But data on the number of new jobs outside with / agricultural sector (the NFP) is so disappointed the market (43% drop), the pair turned sharply to the north, jumped to a height of 1.1130. The end of the trading session, it has met at the level of 1.1120;
- GBP / USD . Third week result for the GBP close to zero. Starting from horizon 1.3075, by Tuesday, January 7, he reached a height of 1.3210, then dropped to the 1.3010 support, the newly spun and finished the five-day period at the level of 1.3060, losing during this time a total of 15 points. However, as before, due to its very high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders earning potential - a week-long sweep of her hesitation was 200 points;
- USD / JPY . Prediction regarding this pair proved 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the overwhelming majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on the D1, falling of pair had to stop at the level of 107.80, repulsed by that, she had to leave the resistance 109.25 and then to the maximum values of last December, 109.70 area.
In reality, already bottomed at around 107.76 on Monday, January 6 pair turned and went upstairs. On Wednesday, the Yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, and it was unsuccessful, and by the end of the week a couple, as had been expected, given the height reached 109.70. This was followed by a slight correction, and final chord sounded at 109.50;
- cryptocurrency. It seems, indeed some investors consider bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the backdrop of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a six peak, breaking a number of important resistance levels. Contributed to the growth and false information about a sharp increase in capitalization steyblkoina Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap $ 500 million. As a result, BTC costs soared to a height of $ 8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week, says that on kriptorynka quotes is increasingly beginning to affect algorithmic trading. Reacting only on price momentum, in this case, up, robots began buying coins, giving it an additional impulse force.
Soon after it became known to reduce the tension around Iran, and that the information on the $ 500 million - only a "duck", the price of Bitcoin has gone down, dropping to $ 7.765, then again gone up and reached by Friday evening January 10 the height of $ 8,100.
As a result of the events described bitcoin growth since 03 January up to the maximum at about 17%, Ethereum (ETH / USD) - such as 17%, Ripley (XRP / USD) - 22%, and laytkoyna (LTC / USD) - 27 %. The total market capitalization grew by 10%, while the index of fear and greed Bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) for another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD . Since 29 November 2019., Couple moved on the uplink. December 31 it reached its upper border at an altitude of 1.1240, and then changed direction, revealing a new, 2020-th year gap down. January 8, she has broken the lower boundary of the channel at 1.1125, but because of negative labor market data in the US to consolidate its success bears and could not, and a week-long session, the pair completed almost at the breakdown level.
whether it will return to the rising channel? 60% of experts believe that there is. In their view, the dollar continues to strengthen, and the couple is waiting for fall to 1.1040-1.1065 area, next target - 1.1000. With solidary graphical analysis of these developments to H4 and the majority (70%) is trend indicators to D1. Indications same trend indicators to H4 and oscillators H4 and D1 at the moment can be considered neutral.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of the analysts, the EUR / USD could not break through support at 1.1100, and she will return to at least the center line of the rising channel, which will be located in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, on the trends of the coming week may affect the escalation of tension around Iran. But from the publication of macroeconomic indicators of any extra surprises waiting, perhaps, not worth it. Tuesday, Thursday and Friday will be published data on the US consumer market. January 16 we also learn the value of the index of consumer prices HICP in Germany, which is projected to remain unchanged. Of greater interest is to submit a report on the meeting of the ECB's monetary policy, which will also be published on Thursday, January 16;
- GBP / USD . Before breaking up the UK and the European Union have less than three weeks. As reported by Bloomberg, today Brexit already cost the country $ 170 billion, and before the end of 2020 London will lose about $ 90 billion. Annual growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is 3% less than it would be if the relationship with the EU remained at the same level. UK economy lags behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long road to recovery.
In the nearest time, with high probability, the pound will continue to move in a fairly wide sideways channel 1.2900-1.3200 with Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. Thus, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% for H4 and D1 indicators next week vapor will continue to move to its lower edge. Support 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of the experts, in accordance with graphical analysis on D1, consider that the central zone of vapor, on the contrary, will block up and possibly even reach the maximum of 31 December 2019. at an altitude of 1.3285. This, according to the testimony of the graphical analysis, it may take about four to five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point channel;
- USD / JPY . At last week the pair have not only returned to the boundaries of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but has reached its upper limit. And although 75% of the oscillators, and 85% of trend indicators are green, only 25% of the experts believe that the pair will rise to a height of 110.70. Most analysts (75%) sided bears, as well as 15% oscillators H4 and D1, signaling the overbought. Support 109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week lows at 107.65-107.75 zone - is unlikely;
- cryptocurrency. We already wrote about the fact that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of the coins in 2019 BTC. on the move. The remaining 70% are in the purses in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were obtained and the company Delphi Digital. According to it, at least 59% Bitcoins acquired in the second half of the 2017 year will not move. That is, their holders have not sold their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when some of the BTC shopping sites soared to $ 20 000. These data suggest that in kriptosfere form a stable layer of so-called holders, who do not leave their coins, even when the market aggressively growing.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040 when, according to calculations by Benjamin Cohen (Benjamin Cowen) Bitcoin price could reach $ 1 million According to this analyst, the main story cryptocurrency prices indicates that market cycles are getting longer:. To reach the first peak it took 2.5 years , to achieve the second - 4 years. Extrapolating model of the logarithmic regression on the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggested that the achievement of the next peak will take approximately 5.5 years (after the peak in December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin may reach $ 100,000. Wait for the Bitcoins to $ 1 million can be no earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which pressure regulators bitcoin will go into oblivion, and to replace him come national and regional digital money. Develop your own cryptocurrency puzzled by the ECB to think about the common cryptocurrency BRICS countries, and the Bank for International Settlements has already held the first summit of G20 central banks, to discuss the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But the whole thing fairly distant future. In the meantime, last week highs and lows suggest that the BTC / USD pair moved into a new echelon of $ 7,765-8,450 to the Pivot Point in the $ 8,000-8,100 zone. However, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to remain in this corridor, 70% also expect it to fall to $ 7,000-7,500 zone.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.