First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. On Monday, the euro rose sharply. We can not say that this was not expected. 35% analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 predicted rise to a height of 1.1100 pair. Someone decided that the increase is due to the performance of the new head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. But it is doubtful whether this theory is correct, as the words of a high-ranking official's mostly not concern monetary policy prospects, and focused on the prospect of crypto euros. Although, of course, breath of fresh air in a mega-regulator, and could contribute to the strengthening of the European currency.
Positive add this publication indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany and the EU, showed a slight increase. But as the macroeconomic data from the US, it did not please investors - ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector and the service sector showed a decline. As a result, at a maximum euro it climbed to 1.1116.
The end of the week there were no surprises. As expected, this is an important indicator, the number of new jobs created in the United States is a / s (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), increased by more than 70%. And the markets immediately reacted to this strengthening of the dollar by 60 points. This was followed by a small rebound, and the pair stopped at the level of 1.1060;
- GBP / USD. It would seem that everything had to stand still pending the appointment for Thursday 12 December parliamentary elections. After all, it depends on them and the future Brexit, and the UK in general. But all week the British currency has been steadily creeping up, supported by expectations about the outcome of the elections, the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the course of the summit of OPEC +. The British currency is strongly correlated with the "black gold" and the decision to remove the oil-producing countries from the market, starting from January 01, to 1.7 million barrels per day, it has also supported the pound. The final chord of the week pair GBP / USD put at around 1.3132, gaining five days more than 215 points;
- USD / JPY. According to the scenario in the previous week, the pair was due to deploy to the south, reaching a height of 110.00. However, she did it, before reaching this landmark point some 25 points. And then everything happened exactly as predicted - a fall to 109.00 support, then a pause, and decline to the next support zone at 108.50. Far from it - at the level of 108.55 - a couple and met the end of the trading session;
- cryptocurrency. Unexpected news brought Twitter. Rather, the CEO of the social network Jack Dorsey (Jack Dorsey), who stated that the future of the industry will determine ... kriptovalyutnoy Africa. Why? Yes, because ... Africa is very poor, and this will be one of the main reasons for the adoption of the countries of this continent Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency.
Perhaps this is a certain logic, but it is happening in the digital market determine the US, Europe and China. Last week caused a stir in Europe. It turned out that the European mega-regulator is actively exploring the possibility of launching an official digital euro. "Our goal - said the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde at a hearing in the European Parliament, - the creation of innovative, reliable and integrated payment systems in Europe. This will benefit everyone in the euro zone and significantly strengthen the position of the euro in the world. " True then added that it is necessary to evaluate all the risks of such a step and very carefully weigh the "pros" and "cons."
As for the forecast for the past week, in general, it turned out to be absolutely true. Recall that, according to most analysts, the pair of BTC / USD waiting for the sideways trend between $ 7,000-8,000. At the same time 40% of the experts do not rule out attempts to break the upper boundary of the channel.
In reality, everything is there. Starting close to its upper limit, the pair descended to the level of $ 7.095. Then, on Wednesday, 4 December followed by a sharp leap upwards, but bulls effort was only enough for it to pick up the horizon bitcoin $ 7.865. This was followed by a sharp turn, fall to $ 7,110, and then return to the central zone of the channel, accompanied by a decrease in volatility to the range of $ 7,330-7,465.
Quotes top altkoynov such as Ripple (XRP / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), the whole repeated movement "elder brother". And despite the fact that at the end of the working week, they were in the green zone, a total of seven days can be characterized as moderately negative. Thus, the ripple lost in at around 3.5%, Ethereum - 5%, and laytkoyna costs decreased by 9%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. In the US and Europe next week will have three important events are: the decision on interest rates Fed on Wednesday, December 11, and the ECB on Thursday, December 12, as well as designated on Thursday the elections to the Parliament of Great Britain. And if the Fed and the ECB will most likely leave rates unchanged until the level of the elections in the United Kingdom can expect some surprises. exit polls results will be announced late Thursday by Central European time, and the final results of the elections - on Friday 13th. Then we should expect a strong reaction of markets.
Despite the fact that Friday the 13th has a bad reputation among the superstitious people, experts' forecasts are not so pessimistic. 65% of them supported by graphical analysis on the D1, voted in favor of the pair to the resistance 1.1100, and if after the elections in the UK will win a victory opponents hard Brexit, a couple can easily reach a height of 1.1175.
As for the forecasts to the end of December, there is a majority of analysts believe that the pair will move along the Pivot Point 1.1000, oscillating in a range 1.0900-1.1100;
- GBP / USD. As mentioned above, the near future will be decided on December 12 lbs. In the meantime, experts can only shrug. For those who prefer fundamental analysis charts and candlestick figures, say that the graphical analysis on the D1 draws the pair first to 1.3175 resistance zone, then - up to 1.3370, and the New Year at a height of 1.3500. Support this prediction trend indicators 100% and 85% oscillators D1. The remaining 15% of the supplied signals overbought, which speaks about possible trend reversal downwards;
- USD / JPY. Now the pair is within a zone of strong support / resistance, clearly visible since April 2017. You can also talk about the outset with the support of 108.25, which was launched this fall.
Most of the experts (65%) believe that, despite all efforts, in the nearest future the pair will not be able to break through this support and therefore will move within the side of the corridor, which was launched in October this year. According to them, if we will see a fairly weak macroeconomic indicators of the countries of Europe and Latin America, investors pull the dollar as a safe haven will increase. And taking into account the difference in interest rates, the dollar will be much more attractive than the yen, which will move up a couple. The nearest resistance - 109.00, the following - 109.30, the goal - 109.75.
Of course, on the quotation of the pair may also be affected and the progress of US-China trade negotiations, and the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. Therefore it is not excluded and the bearish scenario in which a pair of rush to a minimum 3 October 106.50. Intermediate support in the areas of 107.90, 107.50 and 107.00. For this development we have voted 35% of analysts and 70% for D1 indicators;
- cryptocurrency. The most important event of the coming week will be the launch platform Bakkt 9 December futures settlement bitcoin. And not the fact that this will help Bitcoin. It is believed that this platform - a "hand" of the US Government, capable of at the right moment to strangle kriptorynok or, on the contrary, let him breathe. Confirms this version and that the CEO Bakkt Kelly Loeffler already in session in Washington as a senator from the state of George.
Pressure regulators to the digital market and the desire to bring it under control is not conducive to the growth of quotations cryptocurrency. And the threat of instant large losses simply discourages large investors. According to Bloomberg, this has led to the closure in 2019. 70 kriptovalyutnyh hedge funds. Twice, in comparison with the previous year, and reduced the number of newly generated crypto-funds. So apologists Bitcoin forecasts that by the end of this year cryptocurrency again rise to the heights in the neighborhood of $ 20,000, is unlikely to come true.
However, according to Ceteris paribus experts, nearly 600,000 BTC coins (worth about $ 5 billion) in the last one and a half years remain motionless. It tells of the hopes private investors to take off Bitcoin. The reason for this may be halving 2020. According to some "crypto guru", as a result of this halvinga bitcoin exchange rate can jump to 4000%. As an argument, they cite the value of the main surges of digital assets that occurred after the last two cuts rewards for miners. After the first she climbed to 3420%. After the second - by 4080%. However, what happened to laytkoynom, halving which occurred in the late summer of 2019 shows that such optimistic expectations may prove to be in vain. In anticipation of this event quotes LTC really started to grow,
Returning to Bitcoin, say that the predictions of most experts in December does not portend a pair of BTC / USD no good. 65% of them see it in the $ 6,000-6,600 zone. However, again, a lot depends on how you will start trading on Bakkt. In the meantime, the index of fear and greed Bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) is still in its bottom third - at the level of 29, which corresponds to moderate the fear of investors.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.