First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Most experts (55%) expected correction pair up to 1.1000 zone. This scenario is supported and 15% oscillators D1 and W1, submitting distinct signals oversold. This forecast can be considered a 100% self-fulfilling, as the EUR rose on Thursday, September 3rd to the level 1.0999 USD. Proved faithful and graphical analysis warning that before leaving the mark of 1.1000, pair can expect a decrease, which she showed at the beginning of the week.
It supports the growth of the European currency is weak macroeconomic data from the USA, due largely trade wars, which is the president of Trump. So, ISM business activity index in the services sector showed a drop from 56.4 to 52.6. After its publication October 03, the market paid attention to the release of the US labor market, which traditionally was released on the first Friday of the month, October 4. Measure of the number of new jobs created in the United States outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls), fell by almost 20% (from 168K to 136K), which also indicates the approach of a recession.
It indicators such as ISM and the NFP, determine the steps of the US Federal Reserve to change interest rates. Therefore, the key event was the performance of Jerome Powell at the very end of the working week from which investors hoped to learn Fed plans for the coming months.
Powell is famous for its ability to saying a lot, do not say anything concrete. It happened at this time. As a result, after a few slack jumps couple stopped at the level of 1.0980;
- GBP / USD. In the British Isles the first week of October was surprisingly quiet. Nothing extraordinary happened around Brexit. Therefore, on Friday, October 3rd was a couple in the same zone, where it was seven days ago. Most of the time she moved to the side channel in the range 1.2275-1.2350, while the bulls and bears have made several attempts to go beyond it. For example, a local minimum was recorded at around 1.2205, maximum - 1.2415, and the scope of exchange rate fluctuations amounted to 210 points;
- USD / JPY. As for the yen, it was expected that investors will wait for developments in the US-China trade war. Push up the yen and may decline in yield on US bonds. As a result, the fog surrounding the talks between Washington and Beijing has not cleared, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell by 12%. Due to these factors, as well as the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, the yen rose, reaching on Thursday a month old values in the area of 106.50. The final point of the week as the Japanese currency set at the level of 106.85;
- cryptocurrency. Kriptovalyutny "fear and greed index» (Fear & Greed Index) red "extreme fear" zone rose to orange zone "fear ordinary". Fear that bitcoin could fall even lower, not disappeared. Simply market calmed down a little and came to himself after a bad start trading futures on the crypto-Bakkt and the ensuing panic September 24. Traders and investors took a breather, which is clearly seen on the BTC / USD chart. Maximum volatility of the pair last week fell on 30 September - 1 October and was about 9%. Everything else the pair is moving along the horizon $ 8,190 in the more narrow side channel, not to exceed 5%.
Following the main cryptocurrency, sideways and crossed the main altkoyny -. Ethereum (ETH / USD), laytkoyn (LTC / USD), Ripple (XRP / USD), etc. The total capitalization kriptorynka returned to the values of the middle of May 2019. and is a little over $ 223 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Next week we are waiting for a sufficiently large number of events, including numerous performances of the head of the Federal Reserve US Dzh.Pauella in the first half of the seven-day period. However, the most important events, of course, will be the publication of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the protocol on Wednesday, October 09, and the report on the meeting of their colleagues from the ECB on Thursday, October 10th. Both of these documents have shed light on the credit and financial policies of the US and the EU in the near future.
At the moment, the voices of experts as follows. 60% of them, supported by graphical analysis on the D1, voted to drop a pair and try to update at least 1 October 1.0880. The remaining 40% of analysts, in full compliance with the graphic analysis on the N4, take the opposite point of view, considering that the European currency has not yet exhausted the potential for growth and the pair can rise to 1.1100 zone.
Finally, the indicators. As oscillators and trend indicators to H4 are mostly painted in green, on the D1 - half of them are already changing the color to red, and W1 - red color becomes dominant. Thus on H4 and D1 about 15% of the oscillator signals supplied already overbought;
- GBP / USD. Tuesday 8 October scheduled to address the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. However, he did not, as prime minister, Boris Johnson stands today as a major newsmaker UK. And what he has to say, and even more so to do it, worried investors much more (no offense to be said to Mr Carney). But the fact that Mr. Johnson will say and do, as long as no one (perhaps even to himself) is unclear. To the UK release date of the EU there are only three weeks, and it is unlikely Johnson will be able to agree with Brussels favorable conditions for his country of the transaction. So, without any Brexit agreement, or ... once the transfer of its terms.
Although miracles happen too often ... But, as the survey shows, 65% of analysts, as well as graphical analysis, do not believe in them. So expect the pound fall further in an attempt to at least update September 3 in the area of 1.1960. The next support levels at 1.2200 and 1.2070.
Believe in Boris Johnson and expect the best of all 35% of the experts, who are waiting for the strengthening of the pound and the rise of the pair to a height of 1.2525.
Among the indicators of a situation similar to the situation in the British Parliament - a full mix of red, green and gray, as well as discord regarding overbought and oversold conditions in different time frames. So that decision-making at the moment the aid is not necessary to calculate the indicator;
- USD / JPY. The growth of the yen and the fall in the pair is calculated and graphical analysis of 65% of the experts. And it's not just the weekly forecast, but the forecast until the end of 2019. We agree 100% trend indicators to H4 and D1, and 75% for W1. But among the oscillators, the situation is different - for the movement to the south on the N4 votes 75% of them, on the D1 - 60%, and W1 - only 25%. Objectives bears -106.50, 105.70, 105.00 and 104.45. Bulls goal - 107.55, 108.50, 109.00;
– криптовалюты. Фанаты цифрового рынка продолжают гипнотизировать инвесторов обещаниями заоблачных прибылей. Так, разработчик известного антивируса Джон Макафи заявляет, что цена биткойна может достичь в 2020 году 1 млн долларов. Свой прогноз он объясняет ограниченным количеством биткойнов, 85% из которых уже добыто. Более «скромный» прогноз дают аналитики немецкого банк Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB). По их мнению, планируемое на следующий год уполовинивание награды за майнинг может привести к росту курса BTC до $90,000, что при нынешней цене в $8,200 даст чуть ли не 1000% прибыли.
However, along with the optimistic voices and skeptics, whose number is constantly growing. In the two years that have passed since the second half of the first 2017 cryptocurrency not only replaced the traditional money, but do not even have any serious part of the financial system. They have not started to use the scale as a means of payment. Moreover, once in state regulation of vice, they just lose their inherent in the idea of an independent financial market governments.
At the moment, only 25% of analysts believe that bitcoin will be able in the coming days to rise above the zone of $ 8,500-8,600. Most said lateral movement with a certain predominance of bears that can drop a couple of marks to $ 7,500-7,700.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.