First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The worse Trump better dollar. This conclusion can be done by looking at the quotes graphics. Now because of the conversation with the President of Ukraine to the US president faces impeachment, and the dollar index has soared to highs around 99.00. The euro took another 100 points, bringing the EUR / USD pair has updated lows, having fallen to the level of April 2017, and finished the week at 1.0940;
- GBP / USD. Rusty dollar allows not only to the economic downturn in the Old World, but also a growing concern on Brexit. The British Parliament can not deal with the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, who, in turn, is in confrontation with Parliament, and with Brussels, which does not want to make concessions. In this situation, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee Michael Saunders said that the Bank may be forced to lower interest rates, even if we manage to avoid the exit of Britain from the EU without an agreement.
Such a statement from a financial "hawks" has pushed the pound down even further. As a result, like most experts predicted (60%), British currency weakened more than 200 points, and at the end of week session per pound gave 1.229 US dollars;
- USD / JPY. Recall that most of the experts (65%) supported the bears, having voted for the dollar's decline and the return of the pair in the 105.75-106.75 zone. Indeed, since the opening of the trading session, the pair went down, reaching by Tuesday evening local bottom at 106.95. This was followed by a reversal, and the couple returned to where already visited seven days ago, completing the five-day period at the level of 107.95;
- cryptocurrency. What so afraid of the bulls, it happened. Everyone understood that the three-month localization Bitcoin prices in the $ 10,000 area should, in the end, result in a breakthrough. Here only in what direction? Voiced our script pair falling to around $ 8,000 was supported by 35% of experts who, in the end, and they were right. September 24, the day had already nicknamed "Black Tuesday", the main cryptocurrency flew down, losing nearly 17% and reaching $ 8,115. (During the "minute Strait" on kriptobirzhe Binance someone managed to buy a bitcoin just some $ 1,800). Trying to win back losses bulls failed. Only one kriptobirzhe BitMEX, mainly due to the triggering of stop orders, were eliminated "long" position on the $ 650 million. On Thursday, the decline continued, and the BTC / USD was able to find a local bottom horizon reaching $ 7,700.
According to one version, the collapse of the market related to the total volume of trading on disappointment Bakkt platform for trading futures kriptovalyutnymi. Recall that it started to work on Monday, September 23, and for the first day was sold only 71 contracts, each with a volume of 1 BTC. It was assumed that futures trading should help kriptoindustrii. But it happened the other way around, and the next day after the start Bakkt came "Black Tuesday."
Naturally, falling into the abyss, bitcoin and pulled a altkoyny. So, one week minimum for Ethereum (ETH / USD) has been fixed at the level of $ 154.3 (minus 30%), for laytkoyna (LTC / USD) - at the level of $ 50.5 (minus 34%), for Ripple (XRP / USD) - $ 0.213 (minus 28%). Total capitalization kriptorynka seven days has fallen by more than 20% - from $ 277 billion to $ 218 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The dollar continues to be in demand on the background of confusion with Brexit and weak economic statistics coming from the EU. Also, it is supported by the strong results of the next auction of US Treasuries and some optimism about the outcome of the US-China trade war. So, last week the Minister of Commerce of China expressed hope that talks with the US still is found position that suits both parties.
But apart from this, shiny side of the coin there is another downside. It lies in the dissatisfaction Trump and his administration, growth of the dollar, which negatively affects the competitiveness of US industry. In this connection, we can expect that it will take certain steps towards quantitative easing (QE) under pressure from the US Fed President that will lead, if not to weaken the dollar, then, at least, slow down the further strengthening of the American currency.
This week we are waiting for a lot of economic news from Europe and the United States. They will be announced the preliminary index of consumer prices in Germany (30 September) and the EU (Oct 01). Also Tuesday, October 1 and Wednesday 2 October will be published ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the US services sector. And on the first Friday of the month is traditionally released statistics on the US labor market, including the NFP. Complete business week the speech of Fed Dzh.Pauella.
With regard to the expert opinion that 55% of them expect the correction pair EUR / USD up to the 1.1000-1.1100 area. Support this scenario and 15% oscillators D1 and W1, feeding signals about oversold. The remaining 45% of analysts, together with the overwhelming number of indicators, sided bears awaiting further strengthening dollar and reducing pairs to the horizon 1.0800. Near term support is 1.0885. Compromise draws graphical analysis on D1 - initially decrease to a level of 1.0800, then traffic channel 1.0800-1.0885 and subsequent return to the height of 1.1000;
- GBP / USD. On Monday, the last day of September, will see the light of data on UK GDP for the second quarter. It is expected that the rate will increase by 0.7% (from -0.2% to + 0.5%). However, it is unlikely this will have a lasting impact on the pound exchange rate which still determines the confusion around Brexit, the date of which, 31 October, it is inexorably approaching.
In this situation, 45% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and most indicators, expect the pair will try to update at least 03 September - 1.1960. The next support levels at 1.2210, 1.2080, 1.2015.
25% of analysts have voted for lateral movement along a pair of Pivot Point 1.2300. And 30% of the experts expect its growth to a height of 1.2500. Support this prediction to 15% oscillators H4 and D1, signaling the oversold. Nearest resistance zone 1.2385-1.2415;
- USD / JPY. As for the yen, investors will wait for developments in the US-China trade war and the results of the Bank of Japan meeting in late October, which will give impetus to the economy regulator. Yen push up can decrease yield US bonds.
In the meantime, the voices of experts were divided as follows. For reduction pair voted 40% analysts and graphical analysis on D1. The goal - a breakthrough in the support area of 107.00 and the transition to the zone 105.75-106.70. The next goal - 105.00. For the pair to 109.00 zone voted 60% of the experts, 100% trend indicators to H4 and 90% for D1. Nearest resistance - 108.50;
- cryptocurrency. It seems that climate chaos on the planet reflected in kriptorynke. And instead of the promised investor known Thomas Lee kriptovesny comes another kriptozima. At least, many gurus predicted takeoff Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars has not happened yet. And the fact that the current rebound from $ 7,700 has not received any serious development, says the lack of consumer appetite among investors.
Kriptovalyutny "fear and greed index» (Fear & Greed Index) on Thursday reached the level "12" that corresponds to "extreme fear» (Extreme fear). According to, an index of developers, this is a good time to open a "long" position, however, as already mentioned, active buying was observed. And it is possible that they will begin only when the price is close to $ zone 7,000-7,400. |
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.