First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. President Trump is going to be re-elected for a second term due to the robust growth of US GDP. Major US indices continue to assault highs. Futures on the S & P500 rose above the level of 3100. The wave of buying spurred optimistic statement of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlou the imminent conclusion of trade deals with China in the markets. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that in fact the White House is not satisfied with the fact that China is playing for time, and do not offer significant concessions in response to the abolition of tariffs. Yes, and the Trump does not want to cancel them completely.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking before Congress, praises the US economy, calling it a "star", but in this case, referring to a number of factors, including inflation and trade wars, does not rule out another rate cut. As a result, his words, along with the encouraging GDP of Germany stopped the downward trend of the pair EUR / USD at 1.0990 support and pushed the European currency up, allowing her to finish the week with a slight advantage of 35 points;
- GBP / USD. Britain is preparing for early parliamentary elections. Therefore, special news directly related to Brexit, no. And in such a situation, the market once again begins to actively respond to the macroeconomic indicators. So, on Monday November 11 became known data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter. As we predicted, GDP growth amounted to + 0.3% vs. -0.2% in the previous quarter, which pushed the pair up more than 110 points, to the level of 1.2900. Then, until Thursday, the dollar is trying to win back losses. But at the end of the week, thanks to the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the bulls once again took the initiative in their hands, and the pair has completed five days near the landmark level of 1.2900;
- USD / JPY. More or less stable demand for yen maintained almost to the end 14 Thursday in November. The market hardly reacted even frankly weak performance of Japan's GDP in the 3rd quarter (+ 0.1% compared with + 0.4% in the previous quarter). All this has allowed the Japanese currency potyazhelet since the beginning of the week on 100 points, reaching the critical point of tangency with the MA-200 to the four-hour chart, which investors often use as an indicator of trend. But the breakdown of support and the trend of fracture did not happen - thanks to the optimistic statements about Larry Kudlou during the US-China talks, the demand for protective assets fell, and the pair went back to the north, closed the trading session at around 108.80 yen per 1 dollar;
- cryptocurrency. Forecast, which was supported last week the majority of experts (60%), can be reduced to only two words - "caution" and "pessimism". It is in line with these two concepts, and should be the reference currency gradually reduced from the end of October. As a result, the evening of November 15 the pair reached local bottom at $ 8,420, returning to the side channel beyond $ 7,800-8,600, where she moved from 26 September to 22 October.
Throughout the past week the pair was below the 200-day moving average, and by the end of the week and broke through support in the form of a 50-day moving average, which also did not contribute to the growth of bullish optimism.
Top altkoyny generally followed in kilvatore for Bitcoin, repeating its negative trend. Ripple (XRP / USD) has not helped either a large-scale company for its support, launched by bloggers and the media, nor its inclusion in the list of means of payment debit cards Coinbase. A week ripple shrunk by 8%, reaching to a minimum level of $ 0.2528
Ethereum (ETH / USD) barely kept from a three-week break side channel lower boundary of $ 175-195. Holders of this coin is constantly warm the idea that, through POS-Mining (proof of ownership), it may in the future to recognize securities, which will cause explosive growth of quotations.
Laytkoyn (LTC / USD) also found support at the lower boundary of a three-week corridor $ 57-64. This level can be considered as medium-Pivot Point, around which a pair of spinning, starting from 25 September.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. As mentioned above, due to the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and encouraging data on Germany's GDP, the bears did not manage to break the support at 1.1000. After GDP growth from -0.2% to + 0.1%, the representatives of the German Government believe that the introduction of additional stimulus to support the economy in the near future is not necessary. Consumer demand with government spending will level the concerns of industry and exports.
Here it should be noted that many of the macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries in recent years were higher than forecast. However, the uncertainty in the markets remains, and the preponderance of bulls over bears supporters is now only 10%. For the euro Experts voted 55% against 45% who are convinced in the power of the dollar. At the same time and they both pose a pair of relatively modest goal. Bulls - returning to the train 1.1075-1.1175. Bears - breakdown of 1.1000 support and the transition to the zone 1.0940-1.1000. Achieving the low of October 01 - 1.0884 this week, it seems unlikely.
On the side of the bull stood oscillators 90% and 80% for H4 trend indicators. On the D1 picture opposite - 85% and 75% oscillators trend indicators painted red. Graphical analysis and H4, and D1 also bears on side and indicates the drop pairs to horizon least 1.0965.
As for significant events likely to affect the formation of the trend and cause increased volatility, the next week we are waiting for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as the performance of the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, and data on business activity in the EU and Germany on Friday, November 22;
- GBP / USD. Against the background of a break with Brexit, it is difficult to say what kind of reaction the markets cause hearing on the UK inflation report on Wednesday November 20. But because conservatives base their election program, with a focus, in particular, the weakening of the economy, on their part, you can expect a number of loud statements.
In the meantime, 60% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect fracture upward trend and returning vapors to minimize 1.2765 November 08, and then drop it by 100 points lower. Opposite position occupied 40% analysts in accordance with the trend indicators 100% and 90% oscillators H4 and D1. (The remaining 10% of the oscillator signals supplied perekuplennosti pounds). Surrounding resistance levels 1.2975 and 1.3015. The goal - the height of 1.3100;
- USD / JPY. Almost all fall Yen falls, and the pair moves up, based on the MA200, which can be seen well on the H4 chart. At least four attempts to break through this support, ended in failure. And what the outcome of the fifth attempt, depends on US economic indicators and China, and the prospects for signing between "peace treaty."
The optimism of an economic advisor to the White House Larry Kudlou the imminent conclusion of trade deals with China next week can be quickly negated by his boss - President Trump, and representatives of the Chinese government. So it is not possible the pair will break the upward trend and, at least, to go sideways.
Мнения экспертов на данный момент разделились 50 на 50. Среди индикаторов ситуация схожая. Поэтому можно предположить, что пару на какое-то время ожидает боковое движение вдоль Pivot Point 108.75 в коридоре с границами 107.80-109.50. Следующая поддержка в зоне 107.00, сопротивление – 110.30;
- cryptocurrency. If you look at what happened with bitcoin for 10 years, then, like all great - during which time he went up to 100 times. But then he does not want to grow. Those who are going to buy this cryptocurrency as a long term investment, already done it. And now the market belongs to the short-term speculators who play not only on the increase, but also on the decline. Mantras such apologists as a co-founder of the oldest Chinese kriptobirzhi BTCC Bobby Lee (Bobby Lee), that by 2028 Bitcoin price will rise to $ 500 thousand, they do not act. Speculators are focused on quick profits, which can only be due to the increased volatility cryptocurrency and news that make this volatility.
This news will be halving Bitcoins in 2020. In the near future - hardfork Istanbul, which is 4 December 2019. They are going to spend the creators Ethereum. Another news - also scheduled for early December launch of Bitcoin-regulated options Bakkt. These and similar events can cause sharp cross-sectional jumps in prices.
In the last review we wrote that, according to Bloomberg analysts, until the end of the first year cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $ 8,000. As the maximum possible height called the $ 12,000. As for the next peak, in 2020, it stands at $ 16,000. Similar to the colleagues from Bloomberg earlier opinion was expressed by the head of kriptobirzhi Binance Chanpen Zhao (Changpeng Zhao). According to him, traders and investors can ensure that China's growth in the reference coin until at least that height.
But this can prevent one event. A sensational statement was made by Lee Jack (Jack Lee) - founder and managing partner of HCM Capital Company. He believes that within two or three months, the PBOC released its own digital currency. And that it may shift its focus and capital investors from the Middle Kingdom.
As for the forecast for the near future, since the BTC / USD pair dropped to the lateral boundaries of the channel $ 7,800-8,600, there are three possible scenarios. Origin - bearish, according to which pair will continue towards the bottom of the channel. It voted for by 25% of the experts. The same number supported the second bullish scenario. In its implementation the upper boundary of the channel $ 8,600 will act as a support, rebounding from which the pair will go up. Near term resistance is $ 8.815, following - $ 9.130 and $ 9.470. Finally, the third scenario. According to him, the level of $ 8,600 will act as the Pivot Point, along which the pair will go to the east. This development is supported by the majority of analysts - 50%.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.