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Main » 2012 » November » 7 » Forex4you forex news and analytics: Today all the attention will focus on the results of the U.S. elections
Forex4you forex news and analytics: Today all the attention will focus on the results of the U.S. elections

 At Tuesday's session the majors traded in narrow ranges. Market refrained from taking action pending the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. However, by the end of trade, the greenback came under slight pressure and closed the session with small losses against European opponents, but with an increase in the yen.Obviously, this situation was triggered messaging polls, which indicated a slight advantage Obama is perceived by investors as a negative for the "bugs" because it is considered that in the case of re-election incumbent President easing in monetary policy States will continue. 

 Today about Obama's victory confirms the presence of such views in the market - selling dollar against all the majors. Whether this trend will continue, at the moment is uncertain, given that a lot depends on the outcome of congressional elections, namely the answer to the question - whether the Democrats will increase the number of seats in the House. Economic statistics published yesterday a little - data from the ISM New York showed that the index of current business conditions in October fell to 45.9 from 52.9 in September, and it is a year minimum.Today, once again, important news on the economy, which may affect the market will not be posted, all the attention will focus on the results of the elections in the U.S., as well as reports from Europe, where the vote will take place in the Greek parliament.  


Euro spent Tuesday trading in a narrow corridor against the dollar. In addition to the election in the U.S., investors will certainly influence and expectation in the Greek Parliament voting on new austerity measures. Fears that the Greeks did not want to approve the legislative level requirements of international lenders, make the single currency vulnerable and cause a restrained attitude to it by investors. In addition, the market is influenced by weak economic data from the Eurozone. Yesterday's statistics package provided information indicating lower activity in the business community EU bleak prospects for German industry and the continued prevalence of inflationary pressures in the EU. The last estimate of the index PMI for services eurozone noted drop in October to 46.0 from 46.2, previously defined as the composite purchasing managers' index (PMI for the manufacturing sector and the service sector) fell to 45.7 against 46.1 in September. PMI index of leading eurozone countries - Germany, France, Spain, showed a similar trend, the exception was Italy, but this figure only improved the position, staying in the zone drop below 50.0. As for the German industry, in this case, there was a collapse of orders, which fell in September by 3.3% m / m and 4.7% y / y 0.8% m / m, -4.6% y / y in August, the forecast -0.5 see % m / m Naturally, this does not have to expect good results for the euro area in the near future. On top of that figure was presented yesterday, speaking in favor of inflation, which greatly complicates the tasks of the ECB to stimulate the economy. Eurozone producer prices in September rose again - the producer price index in September gained 0.2% m / m, after a 0.9% m / m in August. In today's news section will present data on retail sales in September, where the expected 0.0% m / m, -0.8% y / y 0.1% m / m, -1.3% y / y in the previous period, and the information on the volume of industrial production in Germany in the same month, which probably will show -0.4% m / m, after -0.5% m / m The political component of the day will provide ECB President M. Draghi. However, a major event that may affect the market will still be a vote in Greece. The negative result of this event can be seen as a signal of the country's withdrawal from the euro area, which naturally fallen off the single currency.   


At the beginning of Tuesday's session pound went under slight pressure against the dollar, but by the end of trading leveled position and closed the day with a slight advantage. Sell ​​sterling were called weak data on the economy of the "islands", the results of industrial production marked the UK in September and lower prices in the housing market in October. Report of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that industrial production in September fell by 1.7% m / m and 2.6% y / y, and it was much weaker than forecasts, had expected -0.4% m / m and -1.3% y / y While data from the Halifax showed the continuation of the downward trend in prices in the housing market in October, where the decline was 0.7% m / m and -1.7% y / y -0.4% m / m, -1.2% y / ya month earlier. Can provide support to the sterling to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), declared that in the three months from August to October, the GDP grew by 0.5% after rising 1.0% in the 3rd quarter, signaling thus the stability of the output of the economy recession. At today's auction demonstrates the growth of the British currency against the dollar amid the results of the U.S. elections, Obama announced the victory, which increased risk appetite. However, as it seems, this dynamic "cable" will be restrained as Tomorrow should see a decision by the Bank of England monetary policy and the prospects for the market is divided in opinion as to whether - whether the British regulator to expand the program to mitigate or, after all, to refrain from increasing the fund buy bonds, currently at 375 billion pounds. This uncertainty may impede the growth of the British currency.


The Japanese yen held yesterday in multidirectional trade against the dollar and closed the session slightly lower.Probably a reference to the Dollar / yen bond market was the U.S., where, in the beginning, there was a slight decrease in government bond yields, then sure its growth. At today's auction yen has already demonstrated its growth against the dollar after the reports about Obama's victory, but now the market is a backlash, perhaps optimism on Asian stock markets returned yen under pressure. Data on the economy of Japan today has not been published, the yen will remain under the influence of external factors and, above all, now, in Europe, where it will decide the fate of Greece.


Analyst DC Forex4you : Arkady Nagiyev

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