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Forex4you analyst: British currency fell in trading Thursday

The euro was evidence of economic activity in the euro area, which turned out better than expected, especially in Germany, but the cause of the pressure on the yen and the pound, apparently, can be considered - in the first case, the weak results of foreign trade in the "Land of the Rising Sun", in the second a decline in interest in the "cable" as a refuge currency amid the alleviation of the debt crisis in the EU, where again there is a demand for the peripheral countries of the Central Bank. The data on the U.S. economy, released yesterday, showed positive trends. Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector in January grew rapidly, a preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing showed rise to 56.1 from 54.0 in December, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week fell again, although growth was expected - requirements was less than 5 thousand, 330 thousand, as forecasts predicted 360 thousand secondary applications also declined, there was -71 th index of leading indicators from the Conference Board has given good results - in December rose by 0.5% after 0.0% in November which may indicate the likely strengthening of GDP growth. A small "fly in the ointment" could be Kansas Fed report on manufacturing activity index for January showed after -2 -1 at that awaited improvements to 1. Today the news from the U.S. is very small, only publish data on sales in the primary market in December, where the projected continued growth expected, but with the slowdown, +2.1% after +4.4% in the previous month. Obviously, the current session can set the tone for trading statistics in Europe, where news set is richer in important events.   


News on the Eurozone economy, presented yesterday, carrying a variety of information on the results of economic indicators, but the market has decided to give preference to the positive side, and on that basis, the single currency rose against the dollar in yesterday's trading. Weak data on activity in France pressured the euro, but the data from Germany, was better than expected, and in the whole euro area changed the situation.Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of France in January fell to 42.7 from 44.6 previously, German is the same indicator jumped to 53.6 from 50.3, which supported the entire Eurozone PMI, raising it to 48.2 from 47.2 in December, when the expected 47.5. Were good and the data on external relations eurozone - the positive balance of the current account balance of payments in November rose to 14.8 billion euros against 8.0 billion in October, which was significantly higher than forecast waited surplus at 7.0 billion euros. Negative piece of news filled up message from Spain, where unemployment has set a new record, rising to the level of 2.26% to 25.01%.Today news feed will present data from the German Ifo Institute for January, which is expected to improve, and can add support for the euro - the business climate index is expected to see a rise to 103.0 after 102.4 indicator of current conditions at 107.3 vs. 107.1, and the index of expectations with a rise to 98.8 from 97.9 in December. However, close attention will be paid to the ECB report on a three-year maturity loans to eurozone banks to provide liquidity. The high level of payments on loans will mark stability of the banking sector, which could support the euro, but this will only happen if there will be no return to the increase in bond yields of the peripheral countries of the European bloc.


The British currency fell in trading on Thursday and tested new local lows against the dollar. Obviously, the alleviation of the debt crisis, which led to an increase in investor interest in the securities of the peripheral countries, levels pound status as a refuge, acquired during the peak of the European debt problems. In addition, weak economic data from the "islands" leave on a high level concerns that the Bank of England did go on further easing of monetary policy this year. Yesterday presented data on the British economy, in general, did not have a negative content, but also to support the pound did not have. Report BBA (BBA) has announced an increase in total mortgage lending in December, and the data of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in January to lower retail sales, but better than expected, with 19 to 17 while waiting to see 14. Today the news from Britain will not be much, but they may cause increased volatility in the pairs with sterling. Forecasts on the preliminary data on change in GDP for the 4th quarter is expected to see 0.1% q / q, 0.2% y / y after 0.9% q / q, 0.0% y / y, and if the main economic indicator will show weaker results, it will increase pressure on the pound, as concerns about easing from the BoE will have additional bases.            


The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar and other majors in yesterday's trading. Sales momentum Japanese currency gave evidence about the record deficit of foreign trade in Japan in 2012. Supported by a negative attitude to the yen also statement by the Ministry of Economy, that the rise of the Dollar / yen to 100.00 level will not be a particular problem. In addition, and Japanese Prime Minister Abe said Thursday that the government will continue to consider amending the Act on the Bank of Japan in order to provide the conditions for further easing of monetary policy. Today announced the publication of data on a slight reduction of deflation in December - the consumer price index was recorded at -0.1% y / y vs. -0.2% y / y, when changes are expected. Looking forward, it is likely, the yen will continue to weaken, but, apparently, exchange active as all pairs with the yen rose in price zones, where the strong resistance levels. 


Analyst DC  Forex4you : Arkady Nagiyev


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