The black bar for the single European currency continued. Worst dynamics of industrial production since the eurozone debt crisis in 2012 and a sharp increase in the number of deaths and infected with a coronavirus in China contributed to the drop in EUR / USD to its lowest level since May 2017. Investors are actively buying the US dollar not only as an asset of refuge, but also as an asset, economy issuing country which shows resistance to external negative factors.
According to most of the 63 experts Wall Street Journal, and the epidemic in China, and Boeing problems only marginally, by 0.5 pp less, slow US GDP in the first quarter. The consensus forecast for 2020 is 1.9%, January-March - 1.6%. According to Jerome Powell, the US economy is in great shape and there is no reason to assume that the period of low unemployment, wage growth and job creation will stop. The economic expansion has lasted for the 11th year, a new record, wages growing at about 3%, and the unemployment rate is 3.6%. When all is well in the States, but in the rest of the world, led by China and the euro zone all the bad, the best investment decision - buying the US dollar.
Strengthening greenbacks - a bone in the throat for Donald Trump, which year promises to bring the US GDP growth to 3%. Revaluation puts a spoke in the wheels exporters, reduces corporate profits and slow, so that both the economy and stocks. Not surprisingly, the White House renewed criticism Jerome Powell, noting that during his speech before Congress, the Dow Jones index, as usual, went down. The President believes that the federal funds rate is too high, and the dollar is too strong, which has a negative impact on exports.
US GDP forecasts
Source: Wall Street Journal.
If at first this rhetoric Donald Trump frightened financial markets and gave rise to rumors about foreign exchange interventions by the US administration, then by the end of first term is taken for granted. Become a serious obstacle to the EUR / USD to the south to the owner of the White House is not able, for the salvation of the "bulls" need something more serious.
Especially in circumstances where euro-zone industrial production for 12 months, including December reduced by 4.1%, while German manufacturers are already sounding the alarm about the lack of spare parts from China because of the coronavirus. The epidemic in China suggests that the recession in the industrial sector of the currency bloc will continue, and it means that the ECB still has reason to mitigate the monetary policy.
The dynamics of the European industrial production
Bad start Euro forces banks and investment firms, including Credit Agricole, JP Morgan, RBC Capital Markets, to lower forecasts for the EUR / USD. A consensus score pair is also gone down. Now it is 1.14 in the fourth quarter. Experts still believe in the euro and the "bulls" will try to cling to the support at $ 1,087 and $ 1,083. Will not work - we see the level of $ 1,075.
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