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April by Forex - oil is the currency in the battle! Will the black gold to rise from his knees, and the S & P 500 to move to the consolidati


The use of statistics in times of market turmoil and recession looks crazy idea. And even a 7% and a 10% rally of the US dollar against the euro and the yen in mid-March, is not convinced of the opposite. Yes, in the early spring, I recommend to pay attention to the sale of EUR / USD and buying USD / JPY on the background of a potential recovery in the US stock market, but in fact, everything turned out differently: greenbacks strong in looking at the collapse of S & P 500, and as soon as the stock market began to rise from his knees, he, on the contrary, weakened.



However, the panic in the financial markets due to the aggressive Fed monetary expansion and massive fiscal stimulus wears off the White House, many intermarket communications are restored. One never knows the hour when the situation will return to normal. Then and seasonal factors will not work as effectively as in the past. In addition, currently there are parallels with the 2008-2009 becomes fashionable. How to behave major world currencies 11-12 years ago?  

Better results in April, boasts the Canadian dollar. In 1975-2019 he managed to strengthen against its US namesake in 31 case of 45. In 2006-2013 "loonie" closed in the green zone, all of the second month of spring. Not bad in April look Scandinavian currencies and the British pound, while the euro and the Swiss franc can be attributed to a number of outsiders. 

Periods growth-downs


Source: BoE, LiteForex calculations.

Analysis median and average values ​​confirms the leading position of currencies of oil-exporting countries, as well as sterling. In favorable periods for itself "Canadian" and "Norwegian" is added to its value in the average about 1.7% and 2.1%, lb - 2.2%. the euro and the "Swiss" losses were 1.8% and 2.1%. 


The mean and median


Source: BoE, LiteForex calculations.

Dynamics of the growth during periods of falling-


Source: BoE, LiteForex calculations.

In my opinion, the market in April, US stocks continue to storm. Most of the positives in the form of a large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus is already priced in stock index futures, and to win over the coronavirus is still very far away. Twas the macro will from time to time to clip the wings fans S & P 500, so it makes sense to bet on the consolidation as a whole US stock market, and many dollar pairs. The main risk in this case scenario - the restoration of the "bearish" trend of the US stock indices that will return the interest to the greenback. 

A ray of light in the darkness are able to perform the currency of oil-exporting countries: the Canadian dollar, the Norwegian krone, the Russian ruble, and more. Yes, in March, the "bears" kept Brent and WTI with an iron fist, but a gradual recovery of China's economy, the largest consumer of oil, will positively affect the global demand. I do not think that the conflict Russia and Saudi Arabia - is here to stay. Both countries realize how cheap oil affects their budget and GDP. Brent and WTI rebound from the field 18-year-old bed and the subsequent development of corrective movement will make the actual shorts on USD / CAD, EUR / CAD, USD / NOK and EUR / NOK.


Source analyst LiteForex


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