Brent crude ended the trading session on Monday with growth, recovering to $ 43.15 a barrel. The quotes managed to stay in positive territory even despite the worsening epidemiological situation in the world, forcing traders to fear for the prospects for global economic growth.

WTI crude oil fell on Thursday, ending trading at $ 40.68 per barrel. Oil came under pressure amid a sell-off in the stock market, as well as OPEC + decision to ramp up oil production from August.

Forex forecast and recommendations today 07/16/2020: EUR / USD - ECB to announce verdict on monetary policy, GBP / USD - Decline in dollar rates, USD / JPY - Good and bad factors

Events today:

14.45 Moscow time. Eurozone: Publication of the ECB's decision on the main interest rate for July.

15.30 Moscow time. USA: Change in retail sales in July.

EURUSD forecast for today 07/16/2020
 

The ECB is to publish the results of its monetary policy meeting today. Investors do not expect a change in interest rates, since the monetary authorities have let down many times that they do not intend to cut rates. The only thing the regulator can do today is to revise the GDP forecast for 2021 towards growth, as the European economy is rapidly recovering from the quarantine caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a moderately positive signal for the euro. In general, I expect the upward trend in this currency pair to continue, as the excess of dollars in the financial system will provide good support for the euro.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1385 / 1.1365 and take profit 1.1439

 

 

The USDCAD pair continues to decline during the trading session on Wednesday. By 11:00 Moscow time, the US currency is quoted at 1.36 against the Canadian dollar.

US authorities have decided to maintain restrictions on movement between the US and Canada, which may put additional pressure on the Canadian economy. Media reported that Canada and the United States will extend the travel ban, which was introduced to limit the spread of coronavirus. Recall that the prohibition does not restrict the movement of goods, but affects tourism and other

EURUSD continues to rally amid hopes for an agreement in the EU on the European Economic Recovery Fund. The weakness of the dollar in the wake of demand for risky assets also contributes to an increase in the EURUSD pair.

Forex forecast and recommendations today 07/15/2020: EUR / USD - excess dollar liquidity, GBP / USD - correlation of the pound and oil, USD / JPY - a positive start to the corporate reporting season

Forex forecast EURUSD today 07/15/2020
 

US bankers no longer apply to the Federal Reserve for short-term refinancing. The last 7 days, REPO auctions are recognized as not held due to the lack of bids - this is the maximum period this year. For the dollar, this is negative, because it signals an excess of dollar liquidity in the banking system. The US Federal Reserve will buy back $ 3.62 billion of treasury bonds today. Tomorrow, the Fed’s operations will be three times less and against this background, it can be expected that tomorrow investors can begin to take profits on the “longs”. Additional support for the euro will have a positive trend in the gold market, since both assets have historically correlated with each other. Investors continue to increase the “longs” for the yellow metal, as the world's leading Central Banks are actively increasing monetary emissions.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1380 / 1.1356 and take profit 1.1430

 

 

Brent crude during the trading session on Monday fell by 1.14%, closing the day at $ 42.21 per barrel. Oil pressure remains at the Asian session on Tuesday.

Market fears for the prospects for global economic growth, as well as hydrocarbon demand, led to a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation in the world, which led to lower prices. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported a record daily increase in incidence worldwide - more than 230,000 people. The largest increases were recorded in the USA, Brazil, India and South Africa.

Forex forecast and recommendations today 07/13/2020: EUR / USD - Falling dollar rates, GBP / USD - Correlation of the pound and oil, USD / JPY - Growth of stock markets

EURUSD forecast for today 07/13/2020
 

On the interbank lending market in New York and London, there is a negative situation for the US currency. In New York, the Federal Reserve canceled repo auctions last week, as commercial banks did not apply for refinancing. Bankers have no problems with dollar liquidity, a lot of money. In London, the three-month Libor rate, which is the benchmark for the European market, has updated its four-year low and is approaching the upper limit of the Fed's range of rates, which is at 0.25%. Lower rates also indicate the absence of problems with dollar liquidity in European banks.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1310 / 1.1290 and take profit 1.1357

 

 

Tuesday's trading session was successful for USDCAD buyers. The US currency recovered against the Canadian dollar by 0.48%, closing the day at 1.3601. Today, during the Asian session, the USDCAD pair is declining and quoted at the time of writing (11:00 Moscow time) at 1.3592.

The oil market is declining during the trading session on Tuesday. Since the opening of the day, WTI crude oil has been losing about 0.7% and is quoted at $ 40.15 per barrel.

The decline in oil prices was caused by a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation in the world, which made traders again doubt the prospects for a global economic recovery. Last weekend, the United States set a new record for the number of cases - 57.5 thousand people. According to The Washington Post, what is happening in the United States can well be called a second outbreak, the scale of which is already superior to the first. In total, 2.8 million infected are registered in the United States today. 129 thousand people died from the virus. In second place is Brazil's anti-rating with 1.5 million cases. Russia is located on the third line (667 thousand people). They are followed by Peru and India.