The current week are nicely folded for gold buyers. Only the first two trading days XAUUSD increased by 5%, rebounding from $ 1500 to $ 1577 per ounce. Support around the precious metals market continues to weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of the launch of new measures to stimulate the US economy by the Fed.

 

Events today:

11:30 MSK. Germany: PMI composite index

12:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI composite index

The forecast of the euro against the dollar on the EURUSD today 03/24/2020
 

Today, in many countries of the world will be published preliminary PMI indices for March. The fact that the data will be weak doubt no one, as the epidemic coronavirus COVID-19 has a negative impact on business activity. The question is how much data will be different from the median forecasts. Given the fact that the polls were Markit Economics in the first half of the month, when the world's leading Central Bank had not yet announce a stimulus program, we can expect the release of data worse than expected median, causing another round of demand for the dollar as the currency №1 in the world.

In the money market, the situation is normalized. In New York, US banks as part of operations overnight a second day in a row attracted less than $ 40 billion. In London, the overnight rate is reduced the second day in a row, which also indicates a decrease in demand for US currency. Now the rate of 0.211%, while the previous rate was about 0.3%. The interest rate again returned to the Fed's range. This factor will support the European currency. What we have in the dry residue? Euro weakness will experience after the publication of the PMI data, but the drawdown will buy, because now there are no problems with the dollar liquidity in the money market.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0751 / 1.0695, and take profit 1.0850

 

 

Locked Democrats in the Senate a project to help victims of coronavirus US economy, pessimistic forecasts for the US labor market and GDP, rumors of foreign exchange interventions, as well as the fact that by using swaps the Fed managed to muffle the increased demand for the dollar led the "bears" on EUR / USD retreat. Fuel to the fire poured German intention to unleash wallets. Berlin announced the creation of a supplementary budget by € 156 billion, and the anti-crisis fund to help victims of the epidemic of companies by € 500 billion. 

 

 

Analytics GBPCHF pair based on the circular level, price channels and altered wave analysis.

Technical outlook GBPCHF 23.03.2020
 

The general trend pair GBPCHF downward. Rising (blue) design was completed breaks inclined channel. The sliding indicator Stochastic Oscillator indicated a yield of perekuplennosti zone and directed downwards. Break of 1.1388 will give the formation of the descending structure within the overall downtrend GBPCHF.

 

 

First, a few words about the events of the past week:

 

- EUR / USD. Coronavirus pandemic continues to manage the global markets. Nervousness add oil wars between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which, of course, can not do without the active intervention of the United States. This country, where oil shale is a further object of attacks from Russia may now perform a mediator in the price battle between the Saudis and Russians.

 

 

Technical Forecast USDCAD 20.03.2020

 

USDCAD pair has been falling in the wake of lowering tensions on the markets, large-scale stimulus measures by the Central Bank of the world, the weakening dollar and rising oil prices.

Price USDCAD tests midline indicator Bollinger, it is below 5 SMA and SMA 14. removals intersect thereby give a signal for sale. Relative Strength Index RSI is reduced. Stoch entered the oversold zone.

 

 

US $ 700 billion QE - only the beginning of large-scale action of salvation of the US economy. For the first two days, the Fed bought Treasuries by $ 275 billion of the announced $ 500 billion and mortgage bonds - to $ 52 billion of the $ 200 billion announced for the purpose of market saturation necessary liquidity. However, when, due to disruption of supply chains liquidity crisis turns into a solvency crisis, the greenback is doomed to growth. Stop the revaluation of a particular state is not able to. It requires efforts from all parties. 

 

 

Events today:

17:00 MSK. USA: The volume of home sales in the secondary market

The forecast of the euro dollar pair EURUSD today 20/03/2020
 

dollar basket index set on the eve of a three-year high and now there are several reasons for the decline of the dollar, which in turn have a positive impact on the euro quotes. US banks on Thursday as part of overnight operations, the Fed took 72.89 billion dollars against 98.99 billion the previous day. For example, on Tuesday asked banks 152.75 billion dollars. The demand for money from the banks is reduced. This factor indicates the stabilization of the money market in the US - acute money problems are no more. The money market in London, the demand for dollars is still high - LIBOR rate as day, and at 3 months (the most popular loans from banks) is still several times higher than in New York. This is a negative signal, but there is a good factor. Fed, understanding the problem of shortage of dollars outside the United States, on Thursday announced a currency swap contracts with a number of the Central Bank of the developing countries. It is from this group were the highest bid for the US currency this week. Against this background, reducing demand for the dollar from banks will allow the euro to show the correction.

EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0700 / 1.0670, and take profit 1.0790

 

 

For the brave. the euro in response to the ECB's decision to expand asset purchases program by € 750 billion, at least until the end of 2020 became a kind of reward for the courageous actions of the central bank. Which in any other circumstances would have drowned the single European currency. No joke, the European regulator will infuse the markets around € 1 trillion of cheap liquidity, more than ever! However, when the USD index from Bloomberg reaches record high in response to a decrease in the Fed's federal funds rate by 100 bp, to be surprised at anything not necessary. 

 

 

USCrude - oil forecast today 03/18/2020

Yesterday was broken Target Zone 2 [28.04 - 27.63]. The next target for oil sales - Target Zone 3 [23.94 - 23.53]. The boundary of the downtrend is shifted to the mark [31.30 - 30.84].