Forex forecast and recommendations today 06/10/2020: EUR / USD - A hard day for the dollar, GBP / USD - Correlation of the pound and risky assets, USD / JPY - Low inflation in the USA
15.30 Moscow time. USA: May Consumer Price Index.
17.30 Moscow time. USA: Department of Energy Crude Oil Reserves Data for June.
21.00 Moscow time. USA: FOMC's decision on the basic interest rate.
Euro dollar forecast EURUSD forecast 06/10/2020
Today will be rich in important macroeconomic statistics from the United States. First we get inflation data. This report will be published in May, at a time when many states were quarantined, and oil prices traded at low levels for the first half of the month. Against this background, today we can expect the release of data at the level of median forecasts, which implies a symbolic increase in consumer prices. For the dollar, this is a negative signal. Next, a release will be published on the reserves of black gold in US vaults, where we can expect a decrease in stocks. This report will show statistics for the first week of June, when production declined, and some states abolished hard quarantine, which led to an increase in demand for petroleum products. For the dollar, this is a negative signal, because with the growth of oil quotes, a depreciation of the American currency is observed. At the end of the trading day, the Fed will issue a verdict at the discount rate. According to the FED-30 futures, which is traded on the Chicago SME exchange, the probability of a rate change today is a symbolic 10%. Moreover, by the end of the year investors do not expect rate changes in the United States. For the dollar, this is also negative.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1341 / 1.1325 and take profit 1.1390