18:00 MSK. US: ISM non-manufacturing index.
18.30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Energy Department.
EURUSD forecast of the dollar today 03.04.2020
On the eve of the US Federal Reserve has lowered the discount rate by 0.5%. Media said that it was an unexpected event, but last week, futures on the Fed rate at the exchange CME in Chicago, pointed out the likelihood of a rate cut at its meeting on March 18 at a rate of 99%. The fact that the rate will be reduced, it was clear as it was clear that they could reduce, and not waiting on March 18 as the day before the head of G-7 central banks held an unscheduled conference call. As is now the event will affect the dollar exchange rate? It is best to answer this question the bond market, where yields on 10-year US government bonds renewed historical minimum and reached the level of 0.93%. For dollar this is a serious negative. Incidentally, the futures on a bet the Fed indicates that the rate will be reduced at a meeting on March 18 with a probability of 90% and at a meeting on April 29 with a probability of 50%. The market allows for such a scenario, that by May 1, the rate in the United States will be in the range of 0.25-0.50%. Donald Trump talking about it in the last two years, it is necessary to make a zero rate. Is the Fed realizes this scenario practice? But even if it will not come to two more cuts, even a reduction sufficient to cause a rally in the European currency.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1135 / 1.1125, and take profit 1.1170