11:30 MSK. UK: Consumer price index for August.
21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate.
The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD today 09/18/2019
In the first half of trading forex for EURUSD formed a positive background. Yield spreads of 10-year bonds in Germany / USA and Germany / UK show growth, which usually provides a good support for the euro. Next chords trading will depend on the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. The futures market in Chicago indicates a 65% probability of a rate cut by a quarter per cent. I recall that at the beginning of the month the value was at the level of 99%. Why is the trend changing? The thing is the volatility of the oil market. Oil has a significant impact on inflation, and the Fed to follow closely the changes in consumer prices in the economy. On the eve of oil fell by 6%, as in the United States there was a shortage of liquidity in the banking system. Day rates increased from 2% to 10%! Federal Reserve Bank of New York was able to quickly "extinguish the fire" - a branch of the Fed provided banks with funds amounting to 75 billion dollars.. This factor is to stabilize the oil market. Today I expect the growth of oil prices, as Washington accuses Iran of Saturday's terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, and this factor creates high geopolitical risks.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1054 / 1.1035, and take profit 1.1101