Since 1960, the average increase in the unemployment rate in the interval of 12 months preceding the recession, is about 0.4% - based on AMarkets.
UBS analyzed the statistics of US unemployment and concluded that the increase in the index was 0.8% last year. However, the most frightening signal, according to experts - the lack of positive dynamics in the segment of physical and business lending.
Experts also pay attention to the amount of "junk" debt issued by companies in recent years. Particularly in the energy sector. If another crisis happens, US banks will suffer not so much as last time. And all because this time the creditors of the companies are not banks and holders of high-risk high-yield bonds. Those. the principal martyrs of a new crisis will be investors.