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Main » 2015 » September » 30 » What to expect investor
What to expect investor

If you believe the rumors, the rate of global GDP growth for 2015 may be revised downwards in October. Recent estimates by the IMF at 3.3% for the 2015 second and 3.8% for 2016 already seem unforgivable optimistic - based on AMarkets.




According to Ms. Lagarde, global growth slowed down due to the emerging economies. If you recall, it was EM-region served as a key driver of global GDP growth over the past decade. For example, profits of Chinese industrial companies in August fell by 8.8% - the maximum monthly drawdown for the past 4 years. In the first 8 months of 2015 the profit of the industrial sector of China dropped 2.9%. 
For the long-term investor situation in China - something that you need to pay attention. If there is a new global crisis, it will be the epicenter of China.

Another reason for concern - a high level of debt burdens (debt denominated in USD) in the region EM. Many countries in connection with the fall of their currencies against the dollar are simply unable to service their obligations. A special case - the same China. Chinese authorities barely managed to contain the fall of its currency against the USD.

C June 2014 there is a trend of capital outflows from EM in the dollar. As a result, FX-reserves EM-depleted region. On the financial markets are beginning to occur now and then moments of sharp volatility - such as have not been since 1998 (the crisis the Thai baht and the Russian ruble). Currently, there are crises of the Russian ruble and the Brazilian real - in the last 12 months, these two currencies have had a big impact on the global forex market. Thus, the problems in China, the weakness of the region's emerging economies, the weakness of the EU and uncertainty about the policy the US Federal Reserve - all it adds excitement and does not promise a quiet life in the future.


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