Rénmínbì, literally "people's money", in abbreviated form of RMB, is a new reserve currency - the Chinese yuan. Exactly one year ago, 30 November 2015, the Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to include the Chinese yuan in the calculation of the basket of special drawing rights (Special Drawing Rights - SDR). A 1 October 2016 this decision is implemented. The proportion of the yuan in the basket about 11%. At the same share of the dollar has not changed.
A bit of history. Long ago, China invented paper, but do not just paper, and, as it turns out, the paper money.The first paper money appeared in China in the 7th century. The ancient Chinese philosopher Lao-tzu (VI-V century BC. E.) Advised the government not to interfere in the economy, ie. E. Advocated the "invisible hand" markets. Another sage Kuang Tszhu (Guang Zhu) in the 6th century BC called on in times of crisis to increase budget spending and deal with seemingly unnecessary projects to create jobs, t. e. to practice Keynesianism.
Basic requirements for inclusion in the SDR basket currency only two. Firstly, it is necessary that the issuer of currency has been a leading global exporter. The second condition - is the free use of the currency ( "freely usable"), ie, it should be widely used in international settlements and to bargain on key international markets...
If the execution of the first condition is evident, then the second is not so smoothly. To date, the Chinese yuan can not be called a freely convertible currency with a market floating rate. It is not entirely freely convertible, and the course is not entirely free-floating. We can say that their status has received in advance yuan, due to the assurances and promises to the Chinese side to conduct financial and economic reform. On the other hand, the Fund can not respond to the ever-growing role of China, and if the yuan did not become a reserve currency, it would have raised questions to the very foundation.
At present, the yuan in the proportion of foreign exchange reserves of central banks is very small, so that the release of the IMF is simply not visible. Report of the IMF COFER reserves (Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves):
Impressive not the yuan indicators and their dynamics. Everything happened literally within 4-5 years. Yuan virtually no presence on the world stage, that is. E. Growth started from scratch. Today the RMB 3% of the world comes through the calculations SWIFT, the proportion of China's trade in the national currency 30% (China's share in international trade 12%). China signed currency swap agreements with more than 30 countries, including Russia (150 billion yuan). The central banks of these countries will be able to buy their reserves yuan and receive bilateral loans in RMB by China. The reform of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar began in August 2015 when Chinese Central Bank said that he decided to "optimize the methodology for calculating the" exchange rate in the direction of increasing the role of market forces in view of the positive balance of foreign trade in China, as well as the strong position of the yuan against the currencies other countries. The government gradually open up the capital market to foreign investors. In June, they offered to US investors with a quota of 250 billion yuan (about $ 40.5 billion). The key word here is "offered". E. The yuan is still not a market currency. It can offer, and can not. In the field of information transparency and substantial progress. China joined the Special Data Dissemination Standard of the IMF (Special Data Dissemination Standard). Previously, most of the data a state secret.
And yet the main question that constantly arises whether the renminbi will replace the dollar, or at least significantly oust him. Will the RMB of the currency in which the actual store or make reserves accumulation. Will it be the case of currency crises currency protection (safe haven currency). Today it is clearly not the case. The main obstacle - this, of course, the "rule of law" in its western sense, but rather its absence. It is clear that no Chinese court did not make a decision against the Communist Party of China. While there are precedents, when the US government, or, say, the UK lost in the courts. Economic, financial reform in China is impressive, and not even a political speech, they do not discuss this topic closed. Apparently, we belong to the generations who will have to deal with dollars.
But what if a little dream and remember how unpredictable the world and its future. After all, one does not think that the 91-m will not be the USSR. Most "serious" analysts did not believe in Brexit, now, that and look, the impossible happens, and win Trump. So it is possible that one day we, contrary to all forecasts and expectations, we find that under his pillow not Benjamin Franklin and Mao Zedong.
Fig. 3 (Renminbi)
According to the materials of Alpari