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Main » 2016 » June » 24 » USA. Unpredictable elections
USA. Unpredictable elections



According to Goldman Sachs, the upcoming elections are difficult to predict.The reason for that - difficult economic conditions. The complex, that they can be somehow organically placed in any model - based on AMarkets.




C one hand, the current circumstances indicate that the defeat should be a representative from the Democrats.3-month dynamics peyrolls (on average 116 thousand.), As well the forecast for GDP in the 2nd quarter from Goldman at the level of 3.1% favor Clinton. On the other hand, some of the circumstances (and very good) speak in favor of Republicans. It is above all the so-called factor "it's time to change everything."

This factor, first coined by economist Alan Abramovich at Emory University, takes into account in its economic model electoral rating of the presidential candidates, the dynamics of GDP, and the level of influence of each party in previous years. So, according to this model, can win Trump - Goldman writes. The June Gallup poll suggests that 38% of respondents that the economic problems - the most important aspect for the country at the moment. This is much greater than it was in the previous two election cycles. And it significantly increases the factor of "it's time to change everything." The bottom line, Goldman economists believe that Trump will win.






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