Goldman Sachs warned investors - expect in the near future sale at 5-10% - for AMarkets materials.
Drawdown in the stock market will happen in the next three months interval.
Analysts summarize its market fears something like this:
• Market share prices significantly higher than the average long-term values. 12-month P / E average for the S & P 500 is around 16.4x. At the same time the 10-year average - is 14.3x.
• Baybeki were active tool, supporting stock prices. In fact, the buy-back - the only stable source of demand for paper. Thus, for example, is estimated to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, corporate customers of the bank to buy back shares for $ 20.6 million. At the same time retail investors, hedge funds and institutional players sold in total securities of $ 38.1 million.
• BREXIT - is not the only concern. Investors did not understand how to run elections in the United States.Analysts say that for the last 12 months, the stock market showed pessimism several times - in August 2015 and at the start of 2016. These episodes (they reduced the P / E to 15x level) can be seen as harbingers of the future reversal in bearish trend.
In the past 16 similar episodes of S & P 500 fell by 5% or more since 2009. On average, 7%. If, and this time will be something like this, the S & P 500 will fall to around 1950.
Schedule - past episodes of bearish dynamics of S & P500, as a rule, reduced P / E multiplier to the level of 14-15x: