JPMorgan economists predict - after 12 months of the present recession will begin in America. The main harbinger - the bad reports on the labor market - on AMarkets materials.
Indicator probability of a recession, which hints at the start of the crisis in a year or so, moved up 30% from May, 5 to 34% last week and 36% at the start of this week. The second consecutive week of growth rate - a dangerous signal. JPMorgan indicator takes into account a lot of factors, including consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, the dynamics of construction permits, auto sales, unemployment and others. In the past month, the US economy could grow only by 38 thousand. New jobs. And it is against the expected 160 thousand ..
Thus unemployment dropped to 4.7% versus 5% in April to May. However, this is mostly a technical point -. 458 thousand people dropped out of the workforce. Economists said JPMorgan, the dynamics of the unemployment rate hints at the imminent approach of the recession. The minimum unemployment and the minimum number of people within the labor force indicator - alarm.