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Main » 2016 » November » 8 » Trump vs. Clinton: how to react to the outcome of the vote Currencies
Trump vs. Clinton: how to react to the outcome of the vote Currencies


Trump vs. Clinton: how to react to the outcome of the vote Currencies

 Less than 24 hours before the long-awaited elections in the US, analysts gave their assessment of how to react to currency all over the world on the outcome of the vote.



In a research note Jordan of Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura, says that if Hillary Clinton wins the dollar continues to strengthen. "The dollar is likely to rise in price by another 1.9% against the pound and some commodity currencies", - the analyst believes. 

Investors across the globe have begun to bet on the victory of the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, that has pushed the dollar higher on Monday. 

in case of victory of Donald Trump, the dollar is expected to lose about 1.3% of its value, Rochester said. He also added that the cross-rate dollar / yen may fall to 4.7%.

Dollar Rally?

The dollar's rise on Monday called reports that Hillary Clinton does not threaten criminal prosecution in the case of the use of private e-mail. Statement by the head of the FBI James Comey gave the US currency a much needed boost. 

"The reaction of global markets to the news that the FBI does not see in the actions of Hillary Clinton any wrongdoing, was positive - says Paresh Davdra, CEO and co-founder RationalFX. - The US dollar also strengthened as a result of the fall of a chance to win Donald Trump. " 

Stephen Gallo, Director for BMO Capital Markets currency strategist in Europe, predicts: 

In the case of Trump wins

  • EUR / USD $ 1.1250

  • GBP / USD $ 1.2675

  • USD / MXN 19.90

  • USD / CAD $ 1.3550


If Clinton wins

  • EUR / USD $ 1.0900

  • GBP / USD $ 1.2300

  • USD / MXN 18.10

  • USD / CAD $ 1.3250


While the upcoming presidential election could cause extreme levels of volatility of the dollar, analysts also predict that from a technical point of view, the trend remains bullish, as investors continue to expect a rate hike in December.



The fall of the peso?

Investors are also concerned about the reaction of emerging market currencies such as the Mexican peso, which during the election campaign was marked by high volatility. 

Commodity strategist at ETF Securities, Martin Arnold said the CNBC, that if Clinton wins the Mexican peso continues to strengthen as the US economic policy will not deterrent to Mexico. 

"In case of victory Trump value of the peso will fall sharply against the background of his" anti-Mexican "sentiment. It will also jeopardize the future of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), "- says the analyst.


Based on materials WELTRADE


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