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Main » 2016 » April » 8 » Three scenario dynamics of oil prices
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Three scenario dynamics of oil prices
 
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On April 14, Doha will host a meeting of oil-exporting countries, the aim of which is an agreement to freeze the volume of production at the level of January this year. The meeting resulted in a further significant impact on the price of oil. Thus, in the case of a positive decision to continue talks with bovine growth rates of oil, in the case of a negative decision on the market price may fall significantly. One major factor is the possibility to agree future attitude of Iran to the production of black gold as the main objective of the Government of the Islamic Republic - upload your own power and return the share of the market that does not meet Saudi Arabia.

 

 

 The media reported that Russia and India are considered the optimal oil price of $ 45-50 per barrel, Saudi Arabia considers the most favorable price of 80 dollars per barrel. As more and more experts talk about the possibility of resuming production of shale oil at a price above $ 50. Then, based on fundamental data, it can be assumed that the maximum cost of oil could reach $ 50 a barrel.


It should be noted that the medium-term downward trend, Brent, formed in November of last year, the cost of which was $ 50 per barrel, was completed in late January worth $ 28, then the price of oil is significantly improved over the past two months. At present, the price played a greater polviny bearish trend and is approaching 61.8% (41.5 dollars per barrel), which is the most important Fibonacci level.


Based on technical indicators, assume three scenarios:


The first optimistic case scenario assumes that the price could break through the level of 41.5, and will tend to level of 46.5 dollars per barrel. In the longer-term trend of price can tend to $ 50 per barrel.


The second scenario assumes that the price level will block from Fibonacci level and fall to 36.8, which will gain strength for the next leap up.


The third version of the most pessimistic scenario, assumes that the mood of the participants will exchange and formed a new bearish trend. Confirmation of such a scenario will be considered broken through the support line at $ 36.8 per barrel.

 

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