ING Bank has joined the ranks of banks, warning of amplifying US confrontation, and China, saying that this year will be the worst for the global trade following the financial crisis.
Dutch bank expects that world trade will grow by only 0.2% this year.
The forecast includes the base scenario the introduction of US tariffs on all Chinese goods, as well as the import of cars from Europe and Japan. According to the authors of the report Raul Leringa and Timm Spackman, if the parties reach an agreement, the trade growth will accelerate to around 2% in 2020.
Production figures in Asia and Europe have already signaled a slowdown in economic growth and the largest Wall Street banks warn investors about the growing risks.
Economists at Citigroup Inc said for example, that a full-scale global trade war could reduce annual global economic growth by about 2% per year, which is the weakest since the financial crisis, since the introduction of tariffs would harm the financial markets and business confidence.
When the best-case scenario, when the United States conclude the transaction without imposing additional tariffs, ING sees a slightly better result from the growth of trade by 0.5%. Its least optimistic scenario - the escalation of tension without the deal - would mean an increase of 0.1%. Growth in 2020 will be modest - only 0.6%.
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